The Royals officially ignited their hot stove season, not long after John Sherman’s press conference on Thursday. Friday afternoon before their game against the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Royals announced that they traded Aroldis Chapman to the Texas Rangers in exchange for two prospects.

We have traded LHP Aroldis Chapman to the Texas Rangers in exchange for LHP Cole Ragans and OF Roni Cabrera.

Ragans, a 40-man roster player, has been optioned to Omaha (AAA) and Cabrera has been assigned to the Royals Dominican Summer League team.

— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) June 30, 2023

As expected, the deal has received mixed reactions among Royals fans on social media.

For some, the return makes sense considering that Chapman is 35-years-old, and has had a tendency to be volatile, despite possessing premium velocity, a high K rate, and a decent ERA. To others, the trade feels like a missed opportunity.

Today the #Rangers acquired LHP Aroldis Chapman ($7.2M median trade value) from the #Royals in exchange for LHP Cole Ragans ($2.9M) and OF Roni Cabrera (not yet in system).

The deal is accepted as a moderate overpay by Kansas City, pending Cabrera's addition.

— Baseball Trade Values (@BaseballValues) June 30, 2023

It was a bit of a wild ride with Chapman this year, but kudos to JJ Picollo and the Royals front office for identifying a tradeable asset, maximizing his value, and trading him before he got hurt or seriously tanked his value in July. Considering the pitching injuries happening across the league this year, one can never know how long Chapman would’ve lasted in Kansas City leading up to the deadline, especially considering his age.

With that said, let’s take a look at what the Royals returned in the Chapman deal, and what their outlook could be this year and beyond.

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Can Cabrera Be a Lottery Ticket Winner for the Royals?

One of the biggest gripes Royals fans had with previous GM Dayton Moore during the last rebuild under his watch (2018-2022) was that he tended to acquire players who were closer to MLB-ready and seemed to avoid prospects who carried more risk but had a higher upside.

Cabrera is the antithesis of that kind of player profile.

Signed by the Rangers during the International Signing Period in 2021, Cabrera turns 18 at the end of July and has not advanced beyond the Dominican Summer League thus far in his career.

After a rough initial DSL campaign, Cabrera has torn up the DSL with the Rangers, as evidenced by a .315/.464/.611 slash with a 1.075 OPS and one home run and six stolen bases in 16 games and 69 plate appearances. He also has improved his eye at the plate in his second stint in the DSL this year, as he has drawn 13 walks and only struck out seven times so far this season.

There are not many highlights of Cabrera lingering out there from his time in the DSL, but here’s a highlight video of him when he was 16 and initially eligible to be signed.

There’s no question that Cabrera carries some potential, but there’s a considerable risk here, especially considering he’s a bit older for the DSL (only -0.7 years below the league-average age) and that he still hasn’t matriculated to the Arizona Complex League (ACL) just yet. That said, I’m fine with the Royals taking their time with a talent like Cabrera rather than rushing him to Low-A ball like they did with Erick Pena, who looks pretty broken as a prospect at this point.

I'm not even joking when I say that the Surprise outfield is better than Columbia's. Erick Peña and Levi Usher are struggggling.

Also, Emmanuel Reyes. That's all.

— Preston Farr (@royalsminors) June 30, 2023

I’m guessing that the Royals will keep Cabrera in the DSL for the remainder of 2023 and then perhaps look to move him to the ACL to begin 2024 with a possible call-up to Columbia should all go well.

While Cabrera is an international lottery ticket right now, it would be nice for the Royals to see one of these lottery tickets pan out, especially via trade, like Esteury Ruiz with the A’s (who ironically was scouted and signed by the Royals initially).

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Can Ragans Be “Matt Strahm-Lite”?

While Cabrera is the wild card in the deal, pitcher Cole Ragans is the more “low-ceiling” prospect in the return, though I think he offers more potential than his stat line at the MLB level indicates.

In 26 career games and 64.1 IP with the Rangers over two seasons (2022 and 2023), Ragans has posted a 5.32 ERA and 1.40 WHIP with 51 career strikeouts to 30 walks, and 63 hits allowed. This season, as primarily a relief pitcher, he has a 5.92 ERA, but Ragans has slightly improved his K rate from 15.5 percent to 22.6 percent this season, as well as his K-BB rate from 6.3 percent to 9.4 percent from 2022 to 2023, respectively.

A big reason for Ragans’ improvement in his sophomore season has been due to his growth in two major areas.

On one end, he has increased the velocity on his four-seamer, as it has gone from averaging 92.1 MPH last season to 96.1 MPH this season. As a result, Ragans has seen his four-seamer’s whiff rate increase from 11.1 percent last year to 28.7 percent in 2023, and his CSW jump from 19.1 percent in 2022 to 26.9 percent in 2023.

Here’s a look at his four-seam development from 2022 to 2023 in the clip compilation below. Notice the near-four MPH improvement on the four-seamer this year.

While he is able to get the swinging strike on Mike Trout in the 2022 clip, any mistake with a four-seamer of that velocity is going to be taken advantage of.

That is the case on this four-seamer in the zone against Matt Duffy last year (then with the Angels), which clocks in at 91.3 MPH. Despite Duffy’s lack of natural power, he is able to crush Ragans’ pitch over the left field wall at Globe Life Field.

Now, let’s take a look at that four-seamer thrown in the same area of the strike zone this season, though this time to Seattle’s Jarred Kelenic, who watches the 96.5 MPH four-seam fastball pass by him for a strikeout.

The big question will be if Ragans’ velocity will maintain in a move to the rotation, which seems to be the Royals’ plans for him.

Instead of immediately promoting him to Kansas City to join the bullpen, the Royals are instead having him start in Omaha, hoping that he can get stretched out over the next month, with the idea of him perhaps joining the pitching staff in a starting or bulk-innings role when he is ready.

Cole Ragans will head to Triple-A as a starter to get further stretched out. #Royals could likely see him in the big leagues in the second half.

— Anne Rogers (@anne__rogers) June 30, 2023

The second big development for Ragans this year has been the increase in his curveball usage from 2022. He is throwing the curve 14.5 percent of the time, which is over double the usage rate of the pitch from a year ago, which can be seen in the chart below, via Savant.

According to Pitcher List data, Ragans’ swinging strike rate and CSW rate have improved from 6.8 percent and 34.1 percent in 2022 to 11.7 percent and 36.7 percent in 2023. Furthermore, on a PLV end, Ragans has also seen the PLV curve improve from his rookie season, which shows that the overall quality of the curve is making it a better weapon for Ragans in his arsenal.

(Scroll left for 2022; Right for 2022.)

Back in 2022, the curve was barely utilized, and overall ineffective pitches. However, while the curve is still a bit subpar, it has improved a bit and been more utilized, which could make it more interesting for Ragans when he transitions to longer outings.

Also, Royals fans should notice the improvement in PLV on his cutter, which went from 4.78 in 2022 to 5.05 in 2023. The cutter is also producing a put-away rate of 20 percent and a CSW rate of 29 percent, which is his second-best pitch in the latter category, after his curve.

When paired with the harder cutter, the curve can be a very effective pitch, especially when located low in the zone and into right-handed hitters, as seen in the clip compilation below.

It will be interesting to see if Paul Gibson and the Royals’ pitching development noticed this curve-cutter combo and will push him to utilize it more as a starter in Omaha and eventually in Kansas City after the Trade Deadline.

A further reason to be optimistic about this cutter-breaking combo is that it is very akin to Matt Strahm, who has found success in Philadelphia thanks to his cutter playing off his slider.

Matt Strahm, K'ing the Side in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/zYaTKEsfsa

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 27, 2023

Even though his primary breaking pitch is his slider now, prior to 2023, Strahm opted for a cutter-curve combo year after year to pair with his four-seamer and changeup. That can be seen in his year-to-year pitch usage chart below, via Savant.

While maintaining his fastball velocity will be the number one priority in Triple-A, Ragans honing this curve-cutter mix could also help him go from just an ordinary middle-innings reliever to perhaps a sleeper back-end starter for the remainder of 2023 and perhaps 2024.

And in the long term? It’s possible that Ragans could turn into a Strahm-lite kind of hybrid pitcher who can easily jump between starting and pitching in relief, depending on the situation or matchup.

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Did the Royals Get Enough?

As with any trade, time will tell with how this deal pans out for the Royals.

I remember liking Brett Phillips and Jorge Lopez in the Moustakas deal back in 2018 and the Franchy Cordero and Ronald Bolanos for Trevor Rosenthal return in 2020 as well, and yet those deals failed to really turn anything (at least in Kansas City with those players).

Thus, if JJ and the Royals’ front office want to show that things are different from the Moore era, they will need these kinds of deals to pan out, at least somewhat. Ragans shouldn’t be in another uniform come the next Trade Deadline. Cabrera shouldn’t disappear from prospect radars by 2025.

If that happens, then the “JJ is another DM” sentiment becomes a little louder and more relevant.

Honestly, I didn’t think any deal for Chapman would be satisfying for frustrated Royals fans and I get it. Chapman is a big name. However, being a big name with fans doesn’t mean he’s all that coveted by opposing clubs, especially with scouts who have been keeping tabs on him closely over the last month, at the very least.

This return probably wouldn’t have been all that different if it was coming from the Mets, the Dodgers, or any other club in dire need of relief help.

It is what it is.

Now let’s hope JJ and the Royals front office can turn Ragans and Cabrera into long-term assets who can contribute in some kind of fashion at the Major League level over the next few seasons.

Photo Credit: David Berding/Getty Images