After covering Gavin Cross in my last edition of the “Reporter Prospect Corner“, I move onto the pitching end of the Royals farm system, as I look at right-hander Jonathan Bowlan, who was part of a slew of promotions today, according to the Royals Player Development Twitter.
The four other arms promoted today are also intriguing as well, especially Chandler Champlain, who was acquired from the Yankees in the Andrew Benintendi trade last season. However, Bowlan is the only one of the group currently on the Royals’ 40-man roster, and considering the Royals’ pitching woes in the rotation and bullpen this year, it’s likely that this move is the next step for him eventually joining the Royals’ pitching staff in the next month or two (most likely after the Trade Deadline).
Bowlan isn’t exactly a young prospect by any means, as he is 26 years old and was drafted by the Royals in the second round of the vaunted 2018 draft (the Royals also drafted Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, and Jon Heasley that year). Injuries and the lost Minor League season of 2020 certainly stunted his development, but Bowlan is suddenly looking like the pitcher he once was back in 2019 when he was identified as a possible sleeper from that 2018 Royals draft class.
Let’s take a look at Bowlan’s profile as a prospect, what he has done this season in Double-A Northwest Arkansas, and what Royals fans can expect from the former Memphis Tigers product in both the short and long-term in Kansas City.
Pristine Command in the Lower Minors
Bowlan had a brief nine-game stint in rookie league Idaho Falls shortly after signing in 2018, but in all honesty, he looked fatigued after a long final season at Memphis.
In 35 IP, Bowlan produced a 6.94 ERA in Pioneer League play and also posted a 1.71 WHIP and 1.54 HR/9 with the Chukkars. While strikeouts were hard to come by in Idaho Falls, he did post a 2.56 K/BB ratio, which showed that he could find the strike zone with consistency at the professional level.
Even though the rookie league results weren’t great, he took a major step forward in 2019 at both Low-A Lexington and High-A Wilmington (both no longer affiliates of the Royals). In 13 appearances and 11 starts with the Legends, Bowlan was impressive, as he posted a 3.36 ERA and 0.93 WHIP while also seeing his HR/9, which dogged him in Idaho Falls, drop to 0.52. The right-hander also pumped up the Ks (9.56 K/9) while limiting the walks (1.29 BB/9) which not only produced a sparkling 7.40 K/BB ratio, but impressive performances like the one below.
As expected, the Royals promoted Bowlan to High-A Wilmington, where he played with now-Royals regulars such as Nick Pratto, MJ Melendez, Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, and Brady Singer. Despite being surrounded by other more heralded pitching prospects, Bowlan perhaps shined the most.
In 13 appearances and 12 starts, Bowlan produced an even more impressive 2.95 ERA, as well as a 1.03 WHIP, and 5.85 K/BB ratio. Command proved to be Bowlan’s strongest tool with the Blue Rocks, as he only allowed a BB/9 of 1.59, which was only 0.06 points higher than his mark in Lexington.
The big right-hander also had one of the best individual pitching performances in the entire Royals Minor League system in 2019, as he threw a no-hitter on July 15th (which included nine strikeouts in the process).
Even though he entered his first full Minor League season as kind of a non-prospect, Bowlan emerged on the prospect radar at the conclusion of 2019.
Baseball America ranked him as the 11th-best prospect in the Royals system that offseason and pointed out that his control and command were some of the best in the Royals system, which can be seen in his 2020 scouting report.
Bowlan, who checks in at 262 pounds, stands out for how well he commands his pitches and is credited with having the best control in the Royals’ system. He throws a heavy fastball from a full windup, sitting 90-95 mph and touching 97. Bowlan has two more potential plus pitches—a slider that got better tilt to it while working with Wilmington pitching coach Steve Luebber, and a changeup for which he has good feel. All pitches show above-average life and deception from a delivery that he repeats well. He’s got good pitchability with a good idea of what he’s doing on the mound.
“Jonathan Bowlan Scouting Report-2020”; Baseball America
Even though he finished the year in High-A in 2019, there was plenty of hope among Royals fans going into 2020 that Bowlan could be a dark-horse candidate to join the Royals rotation or bullpen by the end of 2020 or by Opening Day in 2021, simply based on the plus control and command he showcased in the lower levels of the Royals system.
COVID and Injuries Derail Bowlan’s Progression
There’s no question that COVID played a big part in hindering Bowlan’s development. While he did see some time at the Alternate Site in 2020 to work with the Royals coaching and development staff, the lost Minor League season prevented him from seeing competitive innings as a 23-year-old.
Once baseball returned to semi-normal in 2021, the Royals added Bowlan to the 40-man roster and promoted him to Double-A Northwest Arkansas, where he probably would’ve been playing in 2020, had it not been for the pandemic. Despite the delay, Bowlan seemed to be having no trouble in Northwest Arkansas out of the gate, as he posted a 1.59 ERA, 8.33 K/BB ratio, and 0.94 WHIP in four outings and 17 innings of work with the Naturals.
Based on his first four starts, it appeared that Bowlan was on cruise control to Kansas City in August or September of that season. However, he suffered an elbow injury toward the end of May that required Tommy John surgery, and as a result, Bowlan not only missed the remainder of the 2021 season but part of the 2022 campaign as well.
Unfortunately, Bowlan wasn’t the only touted pitching prospect who went down for an extended period of time in 2021, fresh off the pandemic. Noah Murdock, Alec Marsh, and Asa Lacy, the Royals’ first-round pick in 2020, also missed some innings due to injuries, and Bowlan rehabbed with the group in various capacities over the winter in preparation for Spring Training.
Bowlan eventually returned to the mound in 2022, making seven rehab starts in the complex league as well as one rehab start in late July in High-A Quad Cities, which garnered a lot of buzz among Royals Twitter at the time.
Bowlan spent most of his time though back in Double-A Northwest Arkansas, and unfortunately, this short stint wasn’t as impressive as his first stint back in 2021, pre-injury.
In nine starts and 39 innings of work, he posted a 6.92 ERA, a 1.74 WHIP, and a K/BB ratio of 1.76. Those were not just significant declines from his Double-A numbers in 2021, but also his numbers in Lexington and Wilmington back in 2019. In addition, Bowlan was hurt by the long ball, much like he was in 2018 in Idaho Falls, as evidenced by his 1.62 HR/9 mark with the Naturals last season.
Slow Start in 2023 Followed by a Return to Form
Bowlan remained on the Royals’ 40-man roster despite the front office and management changes in the offseason. Furthermore, even though his prospect status lost a little luster after a rough 2022 campaign, prospect experts still had hope for him and his outlook at the Major League level, as Baseball America ranked him as the Royals’ 14th-best prospect and MLB Pipeline ranks him as their 9th-best prospect, as of June 20th.
Here’s what Pipeline had to say about Bowlan in their scouting report.
Before his surgery, Bowlan was tearing up Double-A. If his stuff comes back in 2023, he’ll likely get back on that track. The Royals truly see him as a starter in their future because of his pitch mix and physicality. If he can stay healthy and get back in the zone, he could see time in Kansas City this year.
“Jonathan Bowlan: No. 9”; MLB Pipeline
Early on, the stuff seemed to still be a work-in-progress and that is evidenced by his early numbers in Northwest Arkansas this season, his third-straight year in Double-A.
In 10 appearances and 9 starts, Bowlan was producing a 7.20 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 35 innings. Once again, he had been hampered by home runs, as evidenced by his 1.80 HR/9 this year, which was even higher than his mark in 2022.
At the surface level, it’s easy to dismiss Bowlan as another Kansas City pitching development failure who was unable to recover from injury. That said, a deeper dive into his metrics and his last couple of starts paint a more optimistic picture.
This year, he is producing a K/9 of 12.09, which is nearly double his mark from a season ago. Furthermore, he’s also posting a K/BB ratio of 3.62, which is 1.86 points higher than his ratio a year ago and more aligned with what Royals fans were seeing from him back in 2019 and 2021.
A big reason for Bowlan’s early struggles may be tied to him switching over from a sinker to a four-seamer as his primary fastball. The switch has resulted in fewer groundballs and perhaps more home runs, but it has added more life to the pitch and boosted his strikeout numbers as well, which Marcus Meade of Royals Weekly pointed out in a Tweet thread today.
In terms of velocity, Preston Farr of Royals Review noticed in his past couple of starts that his fastball was back to that 95 MPH range, which is where he was at pre-injury.
Therefore, it may be a sign that Bowlan is finally back to his 2021 form, and that is probably a big reason why JJ Picollo and the Royals front office decided to call him up to Omaha now, especially with the Royals pitching staff looking gassed as of this moment.
In addition to the velocity being back on the four-seamer, his overall whiff, strike, and CSW rates have been impressive lately, especially in a June 9th start against Springfield (the Cardinals’ Double-A affiliate) where he struck out eight and walked only one in 5.2 IP.
Is Bowlan completely back?
Probably not, but he’s closer to where he was pre-Tommy John more than ever before, and that’s an encouraging sign.
What’s the Outlook This Season?
The big issue going forward with Bowlan will be whether or not Picollo promotes him to take over a spot in the Royals rotation or if he moves to the bullpen in a bulk-innings role, which would get him to Kansas City quicker.
The latter seems more realistic, but I doubt Picollo opts for that now, especially considering the struggles of his draft classmates this season.
Heasley has fallen off a cliff this season in Omaha development-wise, and Singer and Lynch are showing that they may not be long-term rotation options in Kansas City (though Lynch has been better and has more time to prove himself). Bubic did look impressive with a new repertoire, but Tommy John has ended his season early, and he can’t be depended on for at least another year.
Thus, the Royals’ rotation outlook looks pretty hazy for 2024, and there could be a lot of competition, as Farr noted on Twitter:
Nonetheless, it’ll be interesting to see if Bowlan can continue his positive trajectory on the mound in Omaha. In addition to Heasley, he will also be competing in Omaha with Marsh, who was called up last week, for a possible spot in the Royals rotation after the Trade Deadline.
My guess is this: It will be a three-way battle among Heasley, Marsh, and Bowlan for a spot for starting innings in August and September. Whoever does the best will be penciled in for a rotation spot in 2024, while the others will begin the transition to the bullpen starting in camp in Surprise next February.
Let’s see if Bowlan will rise to the occasion over the next few months or if he’ll begin the “reliever” journey starting next spring.
Photo Credit: WILLIAM BRETZGER, DELAWARE NEWS JOURNAL
The Royals Reporter 
Mr. O’B, do you think Brad Keller’s absence from Farr’s list of possible ’24 rotation candidates necessarily means the team will allow him to become a FA? Or is his injury judged to be serious enough that he might no longer be viable as a starter?
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It could be a combo of both, but if I had to guess, I’m thinking that they may just be moving on from Keller this offseason, if they aren’t unloading him in a possible trade by the deadline. As for the latter, it may be tough for that to happen unless he returns soon.
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[…] Kevin O’Brien at Royals Reporter writes more about Bowlan. […]
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[…] wrote about Bowlan’s prospect outlook a year ago on this blog, and what stuck out to me was this comment from MLB Pipeline in his 2020 […]
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