The season keeps on going and the losses keep piling up for the Kansas City Royals in 2023. After a 3-2 loss on Apple TV to the Baltimore Orioles, the Royals are now 18-45 for the season.
The Royals will eventually get to 20 wins, but it seems hard to imagine when that will happen, especially with the surging Reds and Angels looming next week at Kauffman Stadium.
Since May 15th, the Royals have gone 6-15, and have been swept twice (both on the road against the White Sox and Marlins, respectively). They only have won one series, which was on the road against the Padres in mid-May, and they split a two-game series in St. Louis against the Cardinals around Memorial Day.
Other than those two series, however, the Royals have lost every single one since May 15th. This also includes series losses to the Nationals and Rockies, who were expected to be as bad or even worse than the Royals in the preseason.
A big problem for the Royals has been the decline in hitting since May 15th, which is discouraging since the Royals were starting to show some gains in late April and May before this recent slide.
Here’s a look at how MLB teams have fared on the offensive end since May 15th, according to Fangraphs data.
The Royals rank last in wRC+ with a 68 mark as a team during that May 15th to June 9th timespan. They are also posting the lowest OBP in the league (.278), are tied for last with the A’s in wOBA (.274), and are tied with the Orioles for the lowest BB% in baseball at 6.7 percent.
Safe to say, Royals hitters have been bad in nearly every category offensively over the past three weeks, and it’s a big reason why this club has failed to surpass the 20-win threshold through 63 games this season.
This is a shame because the Royals’ pitching has actually improved a lot since May 15th. According to Fangraphs, the Royals’ pitching staff not only ranks 5th in fWAR but also ranks fourth in FIP with a 3.52 as a collective.
It’s certainly been a rollercoaster for the Royals in 2023 on the pitching and hitting end. When one is up, the other is down, and that pattern is especially evident during this May 15th to June 9th time frame.
That being said, if the Royals’ hitting can improve even slightly, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Royals get on a streak and accumulate some much-needed wins, especially with the pitching showing some improvement over the past three weeks.
Let’s take a look at the Royals’ struggles on an individual end, and what adjustments manager Matt Quatraro and the Royals’ coaching staff could make to help turn things around for the remainder of June and into July.
The Royals’ BB/K Issues
Here’s a look at how Royals hitters have fared since May 15th, and notice how many of the Royals’ key players this season (Bobby Witt, Jr.; MJ Melendez; Vinnie Pasquantino) do not fare well on a wRC+ end, according to Fangraphs.
The Royals have only had three hitters who have been above average on a wRC+ end since May 15th (Nicky Lopez, Maikel Garcia, and Nick Pratto).
It’s nice to see Garcia and Pratto as two of those hitters, especially since they should figure into the Royals’ future plans beyond 2023. That said, Lopez most likely won’t be with the Royals beyond the Trade Deadline, let alone 2023.
As for Melendez, Witt, and Vinnie, those three hitters are posting wRC+ marks of 83, 65, and 53, since May 15th.
For the Royals to compete both in the short and long term, they will need better production from that trio of young hitters.
And a big issue that has contributed to those three’s recent struggles, and the Royals’ offense as a whole, has been the questionable plate discipline, which can be measured via BB/K ratio.
The league-average BB/K ratio is 0.38 this season, according to Fangraphs. However, the Royals have only three hitters above that 0.38 MLB average, which can be seen in the table below:
Lopez, Freddy Fermin, and Melendez are the only hitters who have produced an above-average BB/K ratio over the past three weeks. All three hitters are producing double-digit walk rates which contribute heavily to that positive ratio.
On the other hand, the K rates are a bit concerning, not just from that top-three group, but the Royals as a collective.
The Royals have only three hitters with K rates below 20 percent, which includes Vinnie, Olivares, and Eaton. While on a wRC+ end, Olivares is doing okay (98 wRC+ since May 15th), Eaton has been unplayable (-20 wRC+), and Vinnie has seen a tremendous slide in his wRC+ since May 15th (53).
Unsurprisingly, the Royals’ over-eager approach seems to be contributing heavily to the Royals’ hitting woes not just over the past few weeks, but as a whole as well (which further explains the low BB/K ratios).
The league-average O-Swing% is 28.2 percent, according to Savant. Here’s a look via Fangraphs of the Royals’ Statcast plate discipline metrics since May 15th, and how Royals hitters compare to that league average mark.
Jackie Bradley Jr., Salvador Perez, and Hunter Dozier being three of the top four hitters in O-Swing% are not really surprising or concerning to Royals fans.
Salvy is who he is as a hitter, and Royals fans have lived with Salvy’s free-swinging approach due to his prodigious power which can carry this club for periods of time. As for JBJ, he’s most likely on his way out of Kansas City, much like Dozier, who was DFA’d near the end of May.
On the other hand, some other younger hitters being above the league average is concerning. Some notable ones include Drew Waters (39.7 percent), Michael Massey (35.8 percent), Vinnie (29.6 percent), and MJ (29.6 percent).
Surprisingly, Witt is actually slightly below the league average in chase rate and has the 5th-lowest chase rate of Royals hitters since May 15th. That is surprising because he’s been widely criticized for his approach this year by many Royals fans and content creators.
That said, for the year Witt’s chase rate and the Royals’ chase rate as a whole remain high and above the league average.
Kansas City is simply an over-aggressive hitting team, and the past three weeks have only demonstrated that even further.
And when that kind of data comes to the forefront over a significant sample, it’s hard to suddenly change the roster and skill makeup in a matter of days and/or weeks.
Which Hitters Can Help?
The Royals need patient hitters who can carry this offense temporarily while the Royals’ key hitters can figure it out and get hot again like they were at the beginning of May.
Thankfully, the Royals have gotten consistent production from Pratto, who not only has the second-lowest chase rate of Royals hitters but also has produced the third-best wRC+ since May 15th. It’s not a surprise that Quatraro has leaned on Pratto in the leadoff spot recently due to his ability to be consistently productive at the plate.
Furthermore, Garcia has also shown a lot of growth as a hitter since May 15th, as he is posting a 113 wRC+ since May 15th. Garcia’s strikeout rate over that sample (32.9 percent) and for the year (26.5 percent) remains high, which deflates his start a little bit.
That said, he not only provides a patient eye at the plate, but he also sports some of the best batted-ball ability on the team as well, which can be seen in the hard-hit ball data.
Garcia has a lot of potential to be a run producer in multiple ways, while still maintaining elite defense in the infield as well.
He ranks in the 100th percentile in Outs Above Average, according to Savant, and it’s possible that Witt and Garcia could make up one of the best third base-shortstop combos on an offensive and defensive end for years to come, especially if they can clean up some of their offensive and fielding issues.
The last hitter who could contribute is Nicky, who’s been showcasing solid plate discipline and contact ability over the past three weeks in limited plate appearances. The big issue for Lopez going forward unfortunately will be playing time, for Quatraro and the Royals front office don’t want at-bats taken away from Garcia, Massey, or Witt.
On the other hand, Nicky could bring some kind of trade return, and I do wonder if sacrificing a game here and there for Massey and Garcia could increase Nicky’s value, which in turn could help boost his trade value in the next few weeks before the All-Star Break.
The Royals need a jolt on the offensive end. It will be interesting to see if Pratto, Garcia, and Lopez can keep it up as other Royals hitters get back to form.
The Vinnie Situation (And How It Affects MJ and Bobby)
Vinnie was expected to be a huge catalyst to this Royals offense at the beginning of the year, and early on, it looked like he was on his way to doing so both in 2023 and beyond.
However, as evidenced by the data presented, Vinnie has been mired in a deep slump and has been one of the Royals’ more struggling hitters since May 15th in most offensive categories.
And if that wasn’t enough, Vinnie left in the seventh inning of Friday night’s game due to a shoulder discomfort issue.
Was the shoulder issue bothering Vinnie slightly and then it came to full fruition on Friday night? That’s hard to say, especially since the Royals have been more on the cautious end with injuries with young players since Kris Bubic’s elbow issue back in April.
Nonetheless, since May 15th, Vinnie has posted lackluster barrel and hard-hit rates, as his average exit velocity is the fourth-worst since that time frame of Royals hitters still on the roster. Whether he was hurt or not, the fact of the matter is that he wasn’t providing the power production needed from his spot in the batting order on a consistent basis.
And his overly-aggressive approach lately too wasn’t a positive sign either, especially since plate discipline and patience were his calling card as a prospect.
Nonetheless, despite Vinnie’s struggles, his injury puts more pressure on Melendez and Witt to provide power and run production in the batting order, especially if Vinnie should be out for a long period of time.
MJ certainly has the raw batted-ball tools to fill that role, as his hard-hit metrics this season put him in pretty impressive company around the league.
As for Witt, he’s been a victim of some rough batted-ball luck, as balls have not been falling for base hits, despite his ability to get power behind them.
The Royals need things to turn around for Witt and MJ if they want to improve this offensive production soon. While there’s some interesting potential in Omaha with Dairon Blanco and Samad Taylor, they are not replacing Vinnie’s power production or on-base ability.
Both MJ and Witt have the potential to take on that role.
Furthermore, with Vinnie out, that could possibly force Quatraro to be more creative with the batting order, which in turn could maximize Witt and MJ’s production at the plate.
Things have only gotten more challenging at the big-league level for Kansas City…
It will be interesting to see if Witt, MJ, and the other young hitters (Pratto, Garcia, Massey, Waters, etc.) can step up while the Pasquatch is out, however long that may be.
Photo Credit: Colin E. Braley/Associated Press
Mr. O’B. what really scares me is that the league’s pitchers have figured out MJ and Witt and those two have not been able to make the necessary adjustments to counter. Lack of experience on their part can be excused only so far: sooner or later they’ll have to start figuring out stuff on the fly. Can they?
Honestly, if you look at what they have done lately, you can tell Witt and MJ are making adjustments. The data shows in the article, but yeah, this year is definitely not looking so hot for them. They will figure it out, especially if they keep hitting the ball hard and keep seeing positive improvement in chase rate, which has gotten better.
It’s not just going to be a one game thing. These take time, though I know a lot of Royals fans don’t see that because they’re getting impatient and reacting after each and every at-bat. We have to remember that’s there a lot of baseball left and a good couple of months could get them back where everyone was projecting them to be.
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