The Royals won the first game of a four-game set against the Cleveland Guardians at Kauffman on Thursday evening. Even though it was a weekday night game, almost 24,000 attended the K, making it feel more like a late-season contest between two teams competing for a postseason berth.
For a team that has hit a rough patch in June, Royals fans seemed more engaged and excited than ever last night (including myself, as I went to four games in four days from Monday to Thursday).
The Royals are 10-14 so far in June, which isn’t as bad as one would think based on all the comments from fans on social media over the past two weeks. According to Fangraphs, the Royals’ hitting has hit a particularly tough stretch in June, as they rank 22nd in fWAR as a group.
Here’s a look at how Royals hitters individually have performed this month.
Bobby Witt Jr. has continued his torrid pace this month, as evidenced by his 131 wRC+ in 103 plate appearances. Kyle Isbel also seems to be turning a corner, as he has a 115 wRC+ in 55 plate appearances. Although it’s only a sample of 39 plate appearances, Renfroe has been stupendous at the plate in June with a 0.67 BB/K ratio, 1.057 OPS, and 193 wRC+.
Of course, some Royals hitters have struggled.
Maikel Garcia has a .140 average and 13 wRC+ in 102 plate appearances this month (though his 0.53 BB/K ratio shows his plate discipline is still solid). Nelson Velazquez’s 21 wRC+ and .411 OPS resulted in him being optioned this month in favor of CJ Alexander, who hasn’t gotten off to a sterling start to his MLB career (his -100 wRC+ demonstrates that). Lastly, Salvador Perez only has a 53 wRC+ this month, though he seems to be getting it back to form in his past few games.
The one name that sticks out from this group is Freddy Fermin, the Royals’ backup catcher.
In 55 plate appearances this month, Fermin is posting a 130 wRC+, the third-best mark for Royals hitters this month behind Renfroe and Witt. For the season, Fermin’s wRC+ is 115, and he also has four home runs, 18 RBI, and a 1.3 fWAR in 153 plate appearances.
If Fermin was in any other organization than the Royals, he might be competing for more regular playing time behind the plate. However, he is also on the same roster as Salvy, who not only is sporting a 124 wRC+ and 1.9 fWAR this season but has also moved to the second round of All-Star game voting.
Nonetheless, Fermin’s performance this year is remarkable, especially considering his unheralded background as a prospect (he didn’t make his MLB debut until he was 27). If the Royals want to continue to make a run at a Wild Card or perhaps even an AL Central division title, Fermin needs to be part of that process.
Let’s examine Fermin’s surprising and perhaps underappreciated season and consider how sustainable it could be as the 2024 season progresses.
Fermin Remains Elite Defensively as a Catcher
The Royals have long been criticized for their lack of catching defense. However, Salvy and Freddy seem to have taken significant steps forward defensively behind the plate, thanks to the tutelage of Royals bench coach Paul Hoover, who primarily works with the pair and other catchers in the Royals organization.
According to Savant, Fermin and Salvy rank in the Top 16 in Catcher Fielding Runs.
The Royals’ framing may not rank in the upper percentiles of the league. However, Fermin and Salvy have at least been slightly above average, which is considerable progress considering where this pair ranked a season ago. Fermin has been somewhat better than Salvy, with a better-called strike rate and ranking in the 61st percentile in framing via Savant.
That said, Fermin and Salvy have shined in blocking and throwing this year.
According to Savant, Fermin and Salvy rank 10th and 14th in Blocks Above Average per game. Though Salvy and Fermin have accumulated 4 Blocks Above Average this season, Fermin averages 0.10 BAA per game while Salvy averages 0.08.
However, the area where Fermin really shines over Salvy is in the area of catcher throwing. Fermin leads all catchers in Caught Steals Above Average with a 0.27 mark. A big reason for his elite numbers is his strong pop, exchange times, and arm strength on a velocity end.
That isn’t to say Salvy has been poor in keeping opposing baserunners at bay. He still has been much better than average and has undoubtedly seen some positive gains in his throwing from a season ago.
However, he still lags behind Fermin simply because Freddy has been proficient with his arm this season.
One could argue that Fermin deserves a starting job at the Major League level sometime soon. That could make him an intriguing trade piece for the Royals if they fall out of the playoff hunt and become sellers at the Trade Deadline.
While Freddy has been sensational with his glove, his defense would be tremendously valuable in the trade market. It’s hard to see him as a long-term option behind the plate in Kansas City, especially at 29 years old and with catching prospects like Carter Jensen and Blake Mitchell having solid seasons in the Minor Leagues.
Nonetheless, Fermin has been a big reason why the Royals continue to win in 2024.
His defensive prowess allows manager Matt Quatraro to give Salvy appropriate days off behind the plate. Furthermore, Fermin gives the Royals an added defensive element that they don’t necessarily get with Salvy, making it difficult for opposing teams.
Can Fermin Keep Things Up Offensively?
There’s no question that Fermin has been legitimate defensively behind the plate for the Royals.
However, his hitting has been more subject to debate, even though he has been on an absolute tear not just in June but also since May.
While his .294 batting average and .337 wOBA are solid marks, his .240 xBA and .294 xwOBA this season show that Fermin probably has benefitted from some batted ball luck in 2024. Furthermore, his .342 BABIP is abnormally high, especially for a hitter with only a 5.2% barrel rate and 33% hard-hit rate (both marks are down from a season ago).
On a positive note, based on his PLV rolling chart data, Fermin seems to be making positive progress with his decision-making on the plate and power ability, especially in June.
On the flip side, his 33% O-Swing% is 4.8% higher than the league average. He also has a 75.9% contact rate, which is not just 1.1% lower than the league average but also 1.9% lower than his mark in 2023.
His contact ability PLV rolling chart also shows an inverse trend this season compared to his decision value and power PLV charts.
This isn’t to say that Fermin doesn’t have offensive value.
If Royals fans look at all catchers who have seen time in Kansas City from 2019 to 2024, Fermin has been the second most valuable catcher in that timespan with a 2.9 fWAR (behind Salvy’s 7.0 fWAR). Fermin has reached that fWAR mark in only 102 games and 377 plate appearances.
Typically, backup catchers are players who offer more defensively than offensively. That certainly has been the case for many backups in Kansas City since 2019. However, Fermin is the only Royals backup catcher in the past five years who has sported a career wRC+ over 100 and offensive value (Off) above zero.
Regression may hit Fermin at some point in July and/or August. That is probably why Quatraro is judicious in using Freddy in the lineup, even though many Royals fans call for Freddy to get everyday at-bats.
While the offense certainly needs a jolt, especially recently, the Royals probably give Freddy the appropriate amount of playing time, which seems to be two to three times a week, depending on the pitching matchup.
If he regresses at the plate, he will do so gradually rather than over a short period. That would lessen the ire of impatient Royals fans who don’t see the complete picture of Fermin’s value.
Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
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[…] Kevin O’Brien at Royals Reporter writes about Freddy Fermin’s breakout season. […]
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