Safe to say, this was one of the roughest weeks of Royals baseball this season.
The Royals lost three of four on the road against the Minnesota Twins, including blowing a 4-0 lead in Thursday’s series finale. (On a positive note, I saw their lone win on Wednesday night in my wife and I’s first game, not just at Target Field but as a married couple).
The Royals probably hoped to build momentum back at the K with Big Slick weekend against the San Diego Padres. Unfortunately, the Padres proved a difficult opponent, especially in the series’ first two games. The Royals were outscored 18-11 in the first two games, with the bullpen struggling in both contests.
On Sunday afternoon, it looked like the Royals were on their way to getting swept by the NL West foe as they were down 3-1 going into the bottom of the ninth. A fourth-straight loss would have been ammunition for AL Central fans who have doubted the Royals all year and for Padres fans who apparently have this undying admiration for Jake Cronenworth’s defensive ability.
(Should I have said he’s the worst second baseman in the league? Probably not, even if it was a bit in jest. But look at his Fangraphs defensive value, and he’s been regressing the past two years, Gold Glove nomination or not).
Thankfully, after a single by Vinnie Pasquantino and a walk drawn by Salvador Perez (Dairon Blanco came in to pinch run), Nelson Velazquez came through with a big triple that brought in two runs. One batter later, Nick Loftin hit a deep fly ball to left field, bringing in Nelly (even though Gold Glove winner Fernando Tatis, Jr. caught the ball; a miracle, I know).
Ultimately, the Royals went 2-5 against the Twins and Padres this week. That isn’t encouraging, especially since the Royals are trying to shed a reputation for only winning against “bad teams.”
Then again, winning baseball is fun, and the Royals are still 36-25 heading into the off day before traveling to Cleveland for their first series of the year against the AL Central leader. If you had asked Royals fans back in February that the club would be 11 games over .500 at the 61-game mark, I think Royals fans would have been beyond excited.
Thus, let’s take a look at three takeaways from this week of baseball and what Royals fans should be looking forward to in the Cleveland series and this upcoming month of tough baseball, which includes games against the Mariners, Yankees, and Dodgers in the next couple of weeks.
Are Royals On Cusp of Making Some Moves?
The Royals shared rough news in the morning, announcing that Michael Wacha had suffered a stress fracture in his foot caused by a line drive from Luis Arraez in Wacha’s Friday night start.
Joel Goldberg of Bally Sports Kansas City announced that Wacha’s return timetable was unclear, but 3-4 weeks seemed the best-case scenario.
Wacha’s stint on the IL is another blow for a Royals org that already saw Michael Massey land on the IL due to his continuing back issue.
The Royals certainly need bullpen help, as I wrote about last week. That said, Kansas City has gotten off to such a great start, thanks to their starting pitching and timely hitting. Losing Wacha and Massey for an extended period wrenches that strategy.
Will JJ Picollo and the Royals’ front office look for reinforcements from Triple-A to help with their starting pitching and hitting holes at the bottom of the lineup? Daniel Lynch and maybe Jonathan Bowlan could help the rotation in the short term, and Drew Waters is showing a hot bat with the Storm Chasers.
That said, it does sound like Picollo will be looking for a “veteran” presence to help this club at some point.
We have seen many promising young players around the league recently optioned to Triple-A after struggling to start the season. Big names such as the Angels’ Reid Detmers, Minnesota’s Edouard Julien, and Detroit’s Spencer Torkelson are three examples.
On the off day, will the Royals option a struggling MJ Melendez and call up Waters or someone else? Or will they look to perhaps acquire someone from outside the organization?
I guess Royals fans will see Picollo’s decision in the coming days.
Is Hitting Really the Problem?
When acquiring a player to boost the Royals roster, I often see Royals fans point to the outfield needing help. I get it. According to Fangraphs, the Royals outfield ranks 29th in baseball in wRC+ and fWAR.
However, I am feeling more optimistic about this Royals lineup as it heads into June, even with a tough stretch of games on the horizon.
Since May 1st, Royals hitters rank 7th in wRC+ and 4th in fWAR. Furthermore, Kansas City also had eight hitters (with a minimum of five or more plate appearances) post a wRC+ of 100 or higher.
For comparison, the Royals only had two hitters with a wRC+ over 100 from March 28th to April 30th. The much-maligned Hunter Renfroe improved his wRC+ by 52 points, Maikel Garcia by 28 points, Adam Frazier by 21 points, and even Velazquez’s wRC+ increased by six points despite an awful start to May.
The bottom line? Yes, the Royals’ hitting isn’t perfect and needs to improve, especially if Wacha is out for a couple of months (which is probable). The starting pitching should take a hit if that happens.
However, I do not think the Royals necessarily need to make a move now. If necessary, they can wait until August for the Trade Deadline.
Right now, the Kansas City lineup is trending in the right direction, with some key hitters due for big summer months as long as they stay healthy.
Can the Royals Hang With Cleveland?
A silver lining from this Padres series loss is that San Diego profiles similarly to the Central-leading Guardians.
The Guardians put the ball in play, much like the Padres, and they have some notable star players who can do damage against opposing pitchers.
The Padres also have a strong bullpen (10th in reliever ERA), though not as elite as the Guardians bullpen this season (1st in ERA). Lastly, the Guardians and Padres profile similarly in starting pitching, as Cleveland ranks 17th in starter ERA and San Diego ranks 18th.
Therefore, it’s good that the Royals took their lumps from a team like the Padres at home this weekend to help prepare them for a tough series on the road at Progressive Field. Playing against a team like the White Sox or Athletics the weekend before the Guardians may not have adequately given the Royals a good test in what could be Kansas City’s most significant series of the season to date.
The Royals’ key in this series will be chasing the Guardians’ starting pitching, which hasn’t been as elite as in years past. Here’s a look at the projected starters for the series and their respective ERA numbers this season.
- Tuesday: Triston McKenzie, 3.77 ERA.
- Wednesday: Logan Allen, 5.83 ERA.
- Thursday: Tanner Bibbee, 3.74 ERA.
The Guardians have not officially announced Allen and Bibbee as starters, so it will be interesting to see if the Royals miss one or two of them and see someone else in Cleveland. Gavin Williams has been on a rehab stint, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him slide into the Wednesday slot, especially in place of Allen, who’s been struggling to begin the year.
McKenzie’s ERA looks good, but he’s walked 34 batters in 57.1 IP. Besides Ben Lively, Bibbee has been one of the Guardians’ best starters, but his HR/9 at 1.11 is higher than a season ago. Thus, the Guardians are more vulnerable in the rotation than in past years, so the combination of that and the surging Royals hitting could be a good sign for Kansas City in this series.
The Guardians have hitters who can put the ball in play and have plenty of speed on the basepaths, making it essential for the Royals to play clean baseball, which wasn’t always the case in the past week. Cleveland ranks 6th in stolen bases this year and should continue to rise with Steven Kwan back in the lineup.
The Guardians also have a penchant for the dramatic in the late innings, so it’ll be interesting to see how the Royals bullpen can hold up, especially after a rough series against the Padres.
The Royals will undoubtedly have their hands full on the road, and they haven’t been as great on the road (14-15) as they’ve been at Kauffman (22-10). If the Guardians have a lead late, it’s harder to see them blow it like the Padres like they did on Sunday (or nearly did on Friday).
Nonetheless, this is a “statement” series in which the Royals can make up some ground on Cleveland and show the Guardians fanbase that the Royals can “compete” against top-tier teams in the league (which should help build momentum for the next two weeks).
Is it a must-win, though?
It’s hard to say any series is a must-win in June, especially with over 100 games remaining on the schedule.
Photo Credit: Julio Aguilar/Getty Images
I agree that it is not the time to trade. We have minor league starting pitching that may project well at MLB (sub 4.00 ERA) and it’s hard to justify what may be the asking price on a decent starting arm. The relievers can be strengthened by minor league promotions that may offer different looks from guys who don’t have a lot of video for opponents to scout. Also, shorten the outings and let the relievers “let it all hang out”
Melendez may benefit from a trip to AAA. His problem is either mechanics or approach. Waters has earned the call-up, and he is able to man all three outfield positions. How do you help him? Put a base stealing threat in front of him and maybe Renfroe behind. Force the pitcher to pitch from “the stretch” and slant the situation to increase the odds favoring the hitter.
I am in agreement about bullpen. It’s just way too early to begin trading, even for a reliever. There’s a few arms that I do like and hope they get a shot before we start trading pieces away to acquire a reliever.
The Storm Chasers have the depth to absorb some of these promotions. And would be interested to see what they could offer. We’re seeing some early success from Long, which I think should show the org that they wouldn’t be “trying out” guys at the MLB level.
I agree about Waters. I know Royals may be “protecting” his value and not wanting him to get too exposed but he can’t be any worse right now than MJ. I like that idea of Waters hitting in maybe the 7 hole and Renfroe following him. Renfroe seems to do much better in RBI situations as he is posting a 93 wRC+ with men on base and a 150 wRC+ with men in scoring position.