The Royals are 27-19 going into Saturday’s evening game against the Athletics (the game is tied 2-2 at the start of this post). While the starting pitching staff has carried the Royals through the first two months of play, it has been a different story for the Royals offense.
As of Saturday, the Royals hitters rank 16th in average and 11th in runs scored but 23rd in OBP and 17th in OPS. According to Fangraphs, Salvador Perez (167 wRC+; 1.9 fWAR) and Bobby Witt, Jr. (135 wRC+; 2.6 fWAR) have carried the Kansas City offense this season. Vinnie Pasquantino (100 wRC+; 0.4 fWAR) and Maikel Garcia (85 wRC+; 0.9 fWAR) have had moments but haven’t had as significant an impact as Salvy and Witt.
Other than those hitters, though, it’s been a bit of a struggle for the Royals’ offense overall, which has been a source of frustration for Royals fans who hope to compete for a playoff spot this season.
It seems likely that a roster shakeup could happen soon, especially with many hitters in Triple-A Omaha performing well.
Drew Waters and Nick Loftin are two names with the Storm Chasers who are doing well and would be easy to call up as they are on the 40-man roster. Nate Eaton, CJ Alexander, Logan Porter, and Devin Mann are Omaha hitters not on the 40-man roster but doing well and could have an impact if they are added to the active roster.
That said, for those Royals hitters who are struggling and at risk of being sent down (or designated for assignment), which ones have legitimate issues worth worrying about, and which ones may be a slight adjustment or two away from turning things around?
An excellent way to evaluate that is by glancing at the PLV Hitter Heatmaps, available on Pitcher List through their PL Pro Tools (accessible via a PL Pro subscription). These heat maps evaluate how effective hitters can be in various metric categories. The metrics are as follows:
- Swing Aggression: How much more often a hitter swings at pitches, given the swing likelihoods of the pitches they face.
- Decision Value: Modeled value (runs per 100 pitches) of a hitter’s decision to swing or take, minus the modeled value of the alternative.
- Contact Ability: A hitter’s ability to make contact (foul strike or BIP), above the contact expectation of each pitch.
- Power: Modeled number of extra bases (xISO on contact) above a pitch’s expectation, for each BBE.
Let’s look at a few Royals hitters off to rough starts at the plates and what we can take away from their PLV Hitter Heatmap data this season.
MJ Melendez
Melendez’s seat of heatmap data is intriguing because it seems like his issue is pretty obvious. When looking at his contact heatmap, he has struggled this year to hit the ball middle and up compared to his peers. That said, he is better than average in making contact on balls down in the strike zone.
Unfortunately, his swing aggression data paints an inverse picture.
He swings more than average on pitches middle and up and has not swung enough on balls down. As a result, his decision value data is below average in the zone’s middle up and middle down areas, which is not a good place to be for him as a hitter.
Savant says his 29.3% whiff rate ranks in the 25th percentile. His .301 xwOBA, while 43 points better than his actual wOBA, ranks in the 35th percentile. His struggles with contact and swing aggression probably play a big part in those mediocre rankings.
On a positive note, Melendez has shown power on pitches in the middle to lower middle of the strike zone, according to his PLV power heatmap. Thus, when he’s aggressive on those pitches, he’s producing results, like this triple against the Angels’ Griffin Canning.
It may simply be a pitch selection issue for Melendez rather than any mechanical issues with his swing. His 72.7 MPH bat speed also ranks in the 66th percentile, which shows that once he starts making better swing decisions, the potential is there for Melendez to improve his performance at the plate.
That process would be better handled in the Major Leagues than the Minors, where the pitching in Triple-A simply isn’t as good.
If anything, a demotion could prompt him to engage in more bad habits (i.e., swinging at more pitches up in the zone) because the quality of stuff from Triple-A pitches wouldn’t make him pay like it would in the Majors.
Nelson Velazquez
I discussed Velazquez’s struggles in a post on Farm to Fountains on May 11th. Over the past week, Velazquez has performed much better since the post, as he is hitting .375 with a 192 wRC+ in 17 plate appearances, according to Fangraphs.
Furthermore, Velazquez has posted some intriguing bat-tracking data this season.
According to Savant, his 73.5 MPH average bat speed ranks in the 77th percentile. His fast-swing rate of 39.1% is also 16.9% higher than the league. That said, his squared-up contact percentage is 1.1% below the league average, and his blasts contact percentage is 2.5% below the league average. Those are disappointing numbers for a hitter with Velazquez’s bat speed and raw power.
Based on his heatmap data, Velazquez’s main issue is that he’s only making contact in one area of the zone: up and inside.
When Velazquez can recognize pitches in that area and get his hands through the zone, he can produce bombs like this against Logan Gilbert in Seattle.
However, when he doesn’t, he produces easy outs like this groundout against Collin Rea of the Brewers at Kauffman Stadium in early May.
Velazquez tends to be aggressive on pitches in the middle and inside, but he has struggled to make consistent contact on pitches in the middle of the zone based on his heatmap data.
A contributor to that could be his slightly long swing, which averages 7.5 ft (the average is 7.3 ft). His long swing could prevent him from consistently making contact, demonstrated in his 32.1% K rate and 62.8% contact, which are some of the worst marks on the Royals team. Thus, I wonder if the Royals hitting coaches are working with him to help fix those issues.
The good thing is that Velazquez has seen some positive results recently, so he may be significantly on the upswing performance-wise if he can elevate the ball a little more and improve those squared-up and blast contact rates.
If not, he may need some time in Omaha to help with his swing length, which could help him tap into his power and bat speed more consistently at the plate.
Hunter Renfroe
Renfroe has been the Royals’ worst hitter this year, and it’s not even close. His 37 wRC+ and -0.9 fWAR are the worst marks of any Royals hitter with 10 or more plate appearances. Even though Renfroe was coming off a down season in 2023, he still hit 20 home runs, and many Royals fans were hoping that a change of scenery would help him bounce back in 2024.
According to Savant, Renfroe’s .262 ranks in the bottom 5th percentile of the league, and his hard-hit rate is down 6.1% from last year, which would be a career-low if the season ended today. Based on his contact heatmap, Renfroe struggles to make contact on pitches in the middle of the zone. Even though he’s been okay with making contact on pitches inside, he hasn’t been able to do much with those pitches.
Another contributing factor is that Renfroe is not swinging much this year. His 42.7% swing rate is 8.1% lower than a year ago and 4.9% lower than his career average. That is probably a product of Renfroe pressing at the plate and trying to find the perfect pitch to hit him out of his low start.
If Royals fans look at his swing aggression chart, it’s blue all over the zone, which means he’s below league average when it comes to swinging the bat. It’s not necessarily disadvantageous to be selective, and Renfroe’s Decision Value heatmap shows that his patient eye is a benefit in many parts of the strike zone.
He may be too passive at the plate, and it has an inverse effect. He’s simply not taking advantage of pitches that he can damage, which is evident in his power heatmap, which is only red in the lower outside of the strike zone. It’s hard to do much with those pitches, let alone elevate them for extra-base hits.
His xwOBA zone chart isn’t good, but he’s been having some positive results when he takes advantage of pitches in the middle, up, and inside.
The xwOBA and power heatmap data aren’t good on those inside zones, but I think Renfroe has more potential there if he can tweak the swing a little.
His average bat speed is solid at 74.3 MPH, and he is sporting a 42.4% fast-swing rate, which is 20.3% higher than the league average. Like Velazquez, though, he’s below average in squared-up contact% (29.2%). Like his fellow right fielder, his swing length is 7.7 feet, 0.4 feet more than average. That has made him weak against those inside fastballs, which explains his low numbers in those zones.
It may be a pitch recognition issue, for when he can pick up breaking offerings inside, he’s been able to produce results, like this home run against Texas’ Michael Lorenzen on May 3rd.
I am not sure Renfroe is an everyday hitter, and based on his performance, Matt Quatraro seems to be treating him more like a semi-regular player right now.
That said, I think he’s a couple of adjustments away from being a decent bench hitter who can play three to four times a week and maybe hit 15+ home runs in that role.
This could make him an intriguing piece to offer to teams at the August Trade Deadline.
Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports