After being rumored as a possible trade candidate to the Marlins and White Sox last Trade Deadline and early this offseason, it seems like JJ Picollo and the Royals are set on keeping Salvy for at least one more Opening Day. That also seemed to be confirmed back in December at the Winter Meetings in a Bally Sports interview with Royals GM JJ Picollo.
Salvy will at least be starting the 2024 season in Kansas City, which is great from a fan perspective since he’s long been one of the faces of the Royals franchise. That said, he is coming off a rough 2023 campaign that saw him post career lows in wRC+ (86) and fWAR (-0.3).
Those numbers aren’t encouraging for Royals fans to see, especially for a player who will be turning 34 years old in May and will be playing his 13th season in 2024 (technically, it could be his 14th since he missed all of 2019 due to injury).
It also seems like MLB analysts are also taking notice of his regression, as Salvy didn’t crack the Top-10 Catchers list released this past week.
Thankfully for Royals fans, Salvy isn’t taking this past season or modest expectations of his future outlook lying down. Based on social media reports, Salvy has been working hard this offseason to shed some weight and be in better shape when pitchers and catchers report to Surprise in mid-February.
There’s no doubt Salvy is a fan favorite who is beloved by Royals fans and will likely be in the Royals Hall of Fame when he retires. However, the Royals are coming off a 56-106 season, and are trying to find a combination of veterans and young talent that can help them improve in the win column in 2024.
Picollo has been active in trying to improve that combination in regards to the starting pitching and bullpen ends this offseason. On the other hand, he’s been a little more conservative on the position player end, with Hunter Renfroe and Garrett Hampson being the only major position player free-agent moves made thus far.
A big reason for that lack of movement on the hitting end of the roster may be the hope that Salvy is ready to bounce back and get back to form after a lackluster 2023 performance.
That being said, is that realistic considering Salvy’s age and where he’s at mileage-wise in his career?
Let’s take a look at Salvy’s past season, what some of the concerns are with Salvy, and why Royals fans should be hopeful about his outlook for this upcoming season.
Salvy’s Regression in Defense Raises Questions
The fact of the matter is that Salvy’s defense is no longer his biggest asset as a player, even with the five Gold Glove awards he has accumulated in his career. That is especially true in this day and age of catching where framing is highly valued by teams.
Salvy’s framing has always been an issue, though he did see some minor improvement in this area under new catching/bench coach Paul Hoover. Unfortunately, while his framing improved, his arm and blocking, two of his defensive strengths that earned him multiple Gold Gloves, regressed considerably in 2023, according to Statcast data.
After being above average for most of his career in caught-stealing categories (CS), Salvy actually rated as below average for the first time in his career in 2023 when it came to throwing out opposing base runners.
That is not promising to see, especially with the new pitch clock and pickoff rules that favor baserunners and resulted in more stolen bases overall last season.
Blocking has been a bit more up and down for Salvy over his career. He did rate as below average in this category as recently as 2021. However, for the most part, blocking has been a strength of his, and much like throwing runners out, his performance in blocking balls took a tumble last season.
When compared to his peers in the Royals organization, Salvy’s caught-stealing and blocking numbers don’t look too hot either.
In the area of blocking, Salvy lagged behind the group, with Freddy Fermin the clear leader of Royals catchers who saw time behind the plate in 2023.
On a blocks-above-average per-game end, Salvy ranked second behind Fermin. On the other hand, he was negative in this category still, and in terms of actual blocks per average, he was one block BELOW average, the only Royals catcher to do so last year.
Salvy was also below average on blocks on easy opportunities. Only MJ Melendez was the other catcher who had a negative block number in this category. However, Melendez will no longer be catching for the Royals in 2024, so that isn’t a good sign for Salvy, whose primary position will be behind the plate.
In terms of caught-stealing metrics among the Royals catchers, Royals fans will see a lot of the same trends based on the Statcast data.
Of the five Royals catchers who saw time in 2023, Salvy ranked last in CS above average with a -2 mark. That was considerably behind Fermin, who had a +4 CS above-average mark a season ago, as seen in the table below.
In terms of CS rate, Salvy’s 13% mark was actually worse than Logan Porter, who didn’t make his MLB debut until last year and is known more for his bat than his defense behind the plate. On CS Above Avg/Throw end, Salvy (-0.05) was a bit better than Porter (-0.07) and Cropley (-0.12), and considerably better than MJ (-0.39), but still lagged considerably behind Fermin (0.12).
Thus, it’s not just framing where Salvy lags behind anymore. It’s in nearly every facet of catching defense, at least based on last year’s numbers.
The good thing for Matt Quatraro and the Royals is that the Royals have a good defensive backup catcher in Fermin who excels in those categories where Salvy has struggled. Even in framing, Fermin was the Royals’ best catcher, according to Statcast, as he produced 1 framing run above average.
As for Salvy? He was 7 framing runs below average, the worst mark for Royals catchers in 2023.
The fact of the matter is that Salvy probably needs to see less time behind the plate in 2024, especially if the Royals want to improve upon their 56-win total from a year ago.
How many games in 2024 that will be behind the plate (and consequently, how many at designated hitter or first base) is still to be determined.
Quatraro and the Royals staff will likely get a better sense of what that breakdown will be when they see what kind of shape Salvy is in when he reports to Surprise.
Salvy Saw Power Dip in 2023
Much like his defense, Royals fans understand that Salvy’s plate discipline can be difficult to watch.
In 1,394 games, Salvy had produced a career BB% of 3.5% and a BB/K ratio of 0.19, which are both well below average marks. He also sported an O-Swing% of 49.5% last year, which not only led all Royals hitters last year but was also the highest percentage in his career.
Bad-looking swings and strikeouts are just part of the deal with Salvy. The PLV decision value rolling charts also back that up, especially from the past two seasons, which can be seen below.
As Royals fans can see, Salvy touching the 25th percentile mark was the highest peak he reached over the past two years. That demonstrates how many runs he is giving away at the plate due to his swing and take decisions.
On the other hand, Salvy adds a power element that has carried the Royals in the seasons following the pandemic.
In 2021, Salvy tied the Royals single-season HR record as he hit 48 home runs. He also collected 121 RBI and produced a wRC+ of 125 in 665 plate appearances. In 2022, he hit 23 home runs and collected 76 RBI, but he did this in only 473 plate appearances.
Last year, he hit 23 home runs again. Unfortunately, this was in 580 plate appearances, the second-highest number in his career (2021 being the highest). Furthermore, after five straight seasons with ISOs (Isolated Slugging) over .200, his ISO dipped to .167, his lowest number since 2015.
When looking at his PLV power chart, Salvy started the year well but saw a dive mid-season around the 150th BBE mark.
That is a far cry from what Salvy did in 2022 when he started the year slowly power-wise but saw his expected extra bases added per BBE rise substantially throughout the season and sit above the 75th percentile for a majority of the year.
The fact of the matter is that Salvy needs to rely on his power and hard contact to be successful as a hitter. Baserunning-wise he’s a station-to-station runner, so that means he’s not going to stretch out batted balls that are not hit in the gaps or down the baseline. He needs to hit it hard in those areas or hit the ball over the fence to be successful, especially in 2024.
That takeaway was confirmed especially by his Statcast hit spray chart from last season.
Notice the flood of orange dots and lack of blue dots in the outfield area. If Salvy is limited to singles frequently on his batted balls, he will have a hard time having value due to his baserunning, especially if he’s in the 3rd or 4th spot in the batting order.
Salvy’s power took a turn downward in 2023. To have a positive impact on the Royals lineup in 2024, that trend needs to change or at least buck slightly back toward 2022 levels.
Why Royals Fans Should Remain Optimistic About Salvy
So, I have presented a lot of data about the concerns with Salvy’s performance overall in 2023. To many Royals fans, those red flags should be a reason why the Royals should look to part with Salvy sooner rather than later.
On the flip side, I remain optimistic about his outlook for this upcoming season, even though I am not sure how long Salvy will remain in Kansas City.
To be frank, it probably was a good thing that Picollo didn’t trade away Salvy this offseason.
The window to trade Salvy was probably at last year’s Trade Deadline and, likely, the Royals wouldn’t have gotten anything of fair value in a trade this offseason (or perhaps even at least year’s deadline). Salvy isn’t quite the player he once was, but I am not sure the Royals would be getting better by adding a ton of more at-bats to Fermin’s plate and requiring Porter or Cropley to take on backup duties.
Second, there’s definitely an emotional end to baseball that the metrics can’t necessarily measure.
Salvy loves the Royals and Kansas City. Kansas City and his Royals teammates and coaches love him. Getting rid of him sends the wrong kind of message to this fanbase, team, and around the league. It probably would’ve resulted in a much different offseason from what we actually witnessed (i.e. we’re not getting Michael Wacha or Seth Lugo without Salvy on the roster).
So those two factors justified Salvy coming back for 2024. I also think there are signs that Salvy could have a surprising season, especially at the plate.
First, Salvy has a history of bouncing back after down seasons.
After a mediocre 2018 and missing all of 2019, he ended up having career seasons in 2020 and 2021. Even though he struggled through injuries in 2022, he still produced a 108 wRC+ season. Additionally, his offensive performance looked even better on a PLV Hitter Performance end especially toward the end of the year, as seen in the rolling chart below.
Salvy is motivated, as demonstrated by the videos of his intense workouts this offseason. He also will be with the Royals full-time this spring, which he wasn’t able to do last year due to the World Baseball Classic. The fact that Salvy will be at the Royals Rally in February, which he wasn’t at a season ago, shows how invested Salvy is with the Royals this year.
Is Salvy on the downswing of his career? Yes, most likely, especially when looking at the hitting and defensive data.
However, he’s a hitter with 25-30 HR and 80-90 RBI potential who will provide a lot of leadership and guidance in the clubhouse. He also is a competitor who wants to win (and he has with the Royals in the past). Having another year under Quatraro and staff, the influx of veteran talent this offseason, and the heightened expectations with the young talent will likely have a positive effect on his performance, even with the skills declining.
The trends aren’t looking great on Salvy long term…
That said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Salvy have one last big season left in him.
Let’s hope 2024 is that big year.
Photo Credit: William Purnell-USA TODAY Sports
Mr. O’B, Missed you on the last podcast, but Chamberlain wasimpressive and it was great to “meet” Preston Farr.Always admired his tenacity reporting from the minors. If they’re serious about competing in ’24 and don’t wantto trade Salvy, doesn’t it make sense to move Melendezto free up some DH ABs by forcing Velazaquez, et al,to pick up a glove more often?
Thanks! Hopefully I will be back this week. Preston does great work and we were lucky to have him on. I think an MJ trade is on the table and it seems like there are a lot of rumblings out there that he’s on the block. I think the Royals are holding out for a good deal and won’t just give him away for the sake of it. But I wouldn’t be surprised if some kind of deal happens where the Royals deal MJ for some kind of prospect return, which they still need to buff up.
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