The Royals bullpen has seen a big upgrade this offseason, much to the relief of frustrated Royals fans.
After struggling down the stretch in 2023 following the trades of Scott Barlow and Ryan Yarbrough at the Trade Deadline, general manager JJ Picollo made sure to not just upgrade the bullpen via free agency, but also part with relievers who weren’t expected to make much of an impact in 2024 or beyond.
Dylan Coleman, Taylor Clarke, Collin Snider, and Jonathan Heasley, who all pitched innings for the Royals in 2022 and 2023, are gone.
In their place, Picollo has added Will Smith, Chris Stratton, Nick Anderson, and Matt Sauer, the latter being picked up in the Rule 5 Draft. While this new group is a bit of an older collection of arms, they certainly bring pedigree to the bullpen that the Royals haven’t seen in quite some time.
Nonetheless, while the new arms will certainly boost this corps of relievers, the Royals will still need to build depth throughout the season. That means under-heralded arms will have to step up and be productive, even if they may not command the salary numbers of the relievers picked up in free agency this offseason.
One pitcher worth watching is Steven Cruz, whom the Royals picked up from the Twins in the Michael A. Taylor trade last offseason just before the start of Spring Training.
The Royals also acquired left-handed reliever Evan Sisk in the deal, who primarily pitched in Triple-A Omaha in 2023. That said, Cruz possessed the more upside of the pair, especially with his ability to touch 100 MPH on his fastball pitches as well as generate strikeouts in the Minnesota Twins system.
Let’s examine what Cruz did with the Royals organization last season and what kind of upside he brings to the Royals bullpen in both the short and long term.
A Brief Look at Steven Cruz’s 2023
Cruz had an interesting Minor League campaign in 2023 which was split between Double-A Northwest Arkansas and Triple-A Omaha.
With the Naturals, Cruz excelled as one of their closers. The 24-year-old not only saved nine games in 29 outings and 32.2 IP in Northwest Arkansas, but he also generated a 30.7% K rate, 16.1% K-BB rate, and an ERA of 2.20.
His transition to the Storm Chasers though was a bit more trying. In 14 outings and 17 innings, he posted a 6.88 ERA and 5.22 FIP. His inflated numbers were particularly hurt by an increase in homers, as his HR/FB rate went from 4.5% in Northwest Arkansas to 15.8% in Omaha.
That said, he actually posted a better K-BB% in Omaha at 16.7%, which was particularly fueled by Cruz lowering his walk rate from 14.6% in Northwest Arkansas to 13.9% in Omaha. Thus, even though his ERA was not impressive, the Royals decided to promote Cruz to the big league level in September, especially considering their need for arms in the bullpen down the stretch.
Royals manager Matt Quatraro utilized the rookie pitcher at the Major League level as both a mop-up man as well as an “opener” (the latter due to the Royals’ depth issues in the rotation).
Overall, Cruz posted a 4.97 ERA and 4.76 FIP in 10 outings, 4 starts, and 12.2 IP last season. Being an “opener” seemed to suit him best, as he posted a 1.59 ERA and 2.90 FIP in 5.2 IP (compared to a 7.71 ERA and 6.52 FIP as a reliever).
As was the case at the Minor League level for Cruz, control was an issue during his tenure with the Royals in 2023.
Even though he posted a K rate of 24.7%, his walk rate was 17.7%, which produced a K-BB% of 6.5%, a pretty mediocre mark. He also only produced an overall CSW% of 25.3%, which ranked 19th last year for Royals pitchers with a minimum of 10 IP last season.
The control and command are still a work in progress for Cruz, and improving that area of his will be an area of focus for pitching coach Brian Sweeney, assistant pitching coach Zach Bove, and bullpen coach Mitch Stetter when pitchers and catchers report to Surprise in February.
On the flip side though, there are a lot of intriguing aspects to Cruz’s pitch mix that could make him not just a productive pitcher for the Royals in 2024, but beyond as well.
The Conflict Between Cruz’s PLV and Stuff+
When it comes to evaluating Cruz’s pitches, it can be a bit of a dilemma, especially when one utilizes both Pitcher List’s PLV and Eno Sarris’ Stuff+. Even though both metrics rate pitch quality, they seem to be conflicted when it comes to evaluating the quality of Cruz’s pitch arsenal.
Here’s a look at Cruz’ PLV chart from last season.
As Royals fans can see, all of Cruz’s pitches are rated as below-average pitches on a PLV end. Additionally, his overall PLV of 4.65 ranked below the 10th percentile as well. One would think that based on this chart it should be easy to dismiss Cruz as a possible candidate to make the Royals’ Opening Day roster.
On the other hand, when it comes to Stuff+, Cruz posted a Stuff+ of 118, which was the third-best mark for Royals pitchers with 10 or more IP last year. Only Aroldis Chapman (138) and Carlos Hernandez (124) posted better Stuff+ marks than Cruz from that sample.
Stuff+ and PLV both rate Cruz’s slider as his best pitch, though Stuff+ is more optimistic about his slider than PLV (it rated as below average on a PLV end at 5.04). However, PLV rates his sinker and cutter as severely below-average pitches while Stuff+ rates them as pretty impressive ones.
Of course, Cruz’s 12.2 IP sample is limited. Pitch quality metrics like this can tend to be a bit wild with pitchers who don’t have a lot of innings under their belt.
Thus, it’ll be interesting to see where the regression will happen with Cruz in 2024 as he pitches more at the Major League level. Will we see positive stabilization happen in his PLV? Or will his Stuff+ numbers regress?
The Unique Characteristics of Cruz’s Fastballs
Cruz sports three “fastball” pitches in his four-seamer, sinker, and cutter. What makes them worth paying attention to though is that they don’t feature the qualities of what you would normally expect from a “fastball-reliant” pitcher.
For starters, his fastball pitches don’t have a ton of vertical movement on them. That includes his four-seamer, which profiles closer to a sinker movement-wise than a typical four-seamer. That is displayed in Cruz’s movement PLV chart.
Notice how much overlap there is between the red dots (four-seamer) and orange dots (sinker). The four-seamer does have a little more vertical movement and less horizontal movement than the sinker, but it’s not as pronounced as what we typically see between four-seamers and sinkers.
Nonetheless, what makes this kind of movement profile interesting is that it makes it tough for opposing hitters to distinguish between the two. In the GIF compilation below, take a glance at whiffs Cruz generated last year on the four-seamer (against Detroit’s Tyler Nevin) and sinker (against Chicago’s Luis Robert Jr.)
Notice the sharp horizontal movement between the sinker against Robert and the four-seamer against Nevin especially since they are thrown in similar areas of the strike zone (inside edge).
It’s only a slight difference, especially in velocity (1 MPH to be specific). However, if a hitter is sitting on the four-seamer on the edge (like the one against Nevin) then the sinker, especially with the movement and location of the one against Robert, could be a devastating swing-and-miss pitch for Cruz in 2024.
In addition, Cruz tends to live down with the four-seamer and on the edges with the sinker, which can be seen in the heatmap comparison below.
Why is the location and movement profile of these two pitches important for Cruz?
Well, the issue is that these two factors with these fastball pitches don’t result in a whole lot of whiffs. With the four-seamer especially, pitchers typically want that pitch to be up in the zone to get hitters to chase and miss. An example of a pitcher who does that is Carlos Hernandez, and this approach is confirmed by his four-seam swinging strike heatmap from 2023.
Unfortunately, that wasn’t Cruz’s MO when it came to fastball location, and his whiff rates from a season ago demonstrate it. Cruz only generated a whiff rate of 18.6% on the four-seamer and 16.7% on the sinker last year, which are both pretty below-average marks.
On the other hand, Cruz has posted solid CSW numbers with both pitches, especially the four-seamer, which had a 29.3% CSW last season. According to Pitcher List, his four-seam CSW rate and 21.5% called-strike percentage on the pitch ranked in the 63rd and 85th percentile, respectively.
Furthermore, he limits the ideal contact rate (ICR%) on the four-seamer and sinker as well. Pitches that sport low ICR% (i.e. under 30%) result in less productive batted balls, which not only benefits the pitchers but plays into the strengths of good defensive teams (which the Royals are, especially in the infield).
If Royals fans take a look at the ICR numbers on his four pitches, the percentages on the sinker and four-seamer particularly stand out (though the slider ICR% is also impressive as well).
That’s a good sign going forward for Cruz. Even if he doesn’t develop a whole lot of swing-and-miss on his fastball pitches, he at the very least could keep the hard contact low on them.
That could make him a valuable reliever who could get out of jams in the middle innings, or be valuable as an “opener” who could help things get started in outings where Jordan Lyles or Alec Marsh is the “bulk innings” reliever. Limiting hard contact will keep the game from getting away from the Royals by the time he leaves after the first or second inning.
Final Thoughts on Cruz
Even though Roster Resource is projecting Cruz to make the Opening Day bullpen, I think it will be tough for him to earn a spot due to his control issues. It appears that Picollo and Quatraro are valuing control and pitchers who can limit the walks. If that wasn’t the case, Coleman, Snider, and even Heasley would still be on this roster.
Nonetheless, I think Cruz offers more upside than what many Royals fans may think. He also settled down a lot after a rough debut that saw him give up four runs in 0.2 IP against the Pirates.
That narrative sounds similar to James McArthur, another unheralded pitching prospect acquired via trade by the Royals last season who also had a nightmare MLB debut. McArthur turned it around down the stretch and he looks to be a key part of the Royals bullpen in 2024 and perhaps beyond.
Cruz didn’t quite have the finish that McArthur did, as Cruz was utilized more in “opener” or low-leverage situations unlike McArthur (who was thrust into the closer’s role and succeeded). In addition, Cruz’s control pales in comparison to McArthur, who didn’t walk a single batter during September and October.
However, the Royals need to identify and develop unheralded arms to build bullpen depth and productivity not just for 2024 but long-term as well.
The Royals have done it with McArthur. It’s possible that Cruz could be the next pitcher acquired from another organization in a trade to break out in 2024 if he’s given the opportunity.
It’s just a matter of “what” kind of opportunity (i.e. “opener” or reliever role) Cruz will receive from Quatraro at this point.
Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
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