It’s been a nice Thanksgiving break, as I was able to get out of the country a bit to rest and recharge. I was worried for a second about missing some moves, but thankfully, the Royals seemed to take care of all their pre-Thanksgiving moves before I left for vacation in the Caribbean.

Usually, the winter time, especially from late November to January, is typically seen as “projection season” by baseball fans and fantasy baseball analysts. Whether it’s to get a glimpse of which players will break out for one’s favorite team or for fantasy baseball managers to get an idea of who to target in upcoming drafts, projections are a great way to keep baseball enthusiasts engaged during these “baseball-less” months of the year.

There are multiple projection systems out there, but typically, there are three I tend to like and review when it comes to making player evaluations and predictions for the upcoming season. Here are the following three I primarily use:

• Steamer: They tend to come out the earliest and can be a good baseline of what to expect from players from other projections that will come out later.
• ZiPS: Created by Dan Szymborski, they are heavily tied to Fangraphs, which I utilize for data. ZiPS also does in-season projections which I also appreciate as the season progresses.
• PECOTA: This is Baseball Prospectus’ projection system and one of the big ones in the baseball community (they are typically published in the BP Annual).

ZiPS unveils its projections by team and then releases all the data once all 30 teams’ projections are broken down. PECOTA typically doesn’t release their projections until their physical annual is released. So right now, Steamer projections are the primary ones that are out (Depth Charts’ projections are as well, but they are a combo of ZiPS and Steamer so I don’t feel they count right now until ZiPS is officially released).

So with that said, let’s look at four hitters that Royals fans should be optimistic about for the upcoming 2024 season based on Steamer projections and some plate approach developments from last year, based on PLV data trends.

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Bobby Witt, Jr.

2024 Steamer Projections: 677 PA; 30 HR; 101 R; 93 RBI; 42 SB; .278/.328/.501; .351 wOBA; 120 wRC+; 4.8 fWAR.

Witt was by far the Royals’ best overall position player in 2023 as he produced a team-leading 5.3 fWAR, according to Fangraphs. The 30 home runs, 49 SB, .343 wOBA, and 115 wRC+ in 694 plate appearances were major improvements from his 2022 marks as a rookie which included 20 home runs, 30 SB, a .313 wOBA and 98 wRC+ in 632 plate appearances.

Therefore, it’s not a surprise that the Royals are “discussing” a possible long-term extension for Witt in order to keep him in Kansas City as long as possible.

Nonetheless, a big question on the minds of Royals fans concerning Witt is this:

Will he continue to develop as a superstar after a sensational sophomore season or will he regress back to his rookie numbers which were good but not great (2.3 fWAR)?

Steamer seems to project the latter. He is expected to put up another 30 HR-40 SB at the very least, and Steamer seems to be optimistic that he’ll continue to improve upon his wOBA and wRC+ from a year ago, which is also encouraging to see after the step forward Witt took in those categories in 2023.

The PLV data also shows that Witt made some promising strides in his swing decisions and selection in his second full season in the big leagues. Notice the upward trend in Witt’s decision value chart over the course of the season and how it correlated with his swing aggression chart.

Royals fans wanted to see Witt be more patient at the plate after a free-swinging rookie campaign. Not only did he do that, but he also correspondingly produced a season that was one of the best in Royals history (it’s a shame that he didn’t turn it on in time to earn his first All-Star berth).

Witt won’t become the next Juan Soto or Kyle Schwarber, both of whom are known for their tremendous patience and low swing rates. On the flip side though, he did demonstrate last year that he could adjust and be more selective at the plate while still maintaining the aggression, power, and contact ability that made him such an enticing prospect in the Royals system prior to 2022.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Witt surpass his Steamer projections in 2024, which is crazy to think considering how lofty they would be for most MLB players.

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MJ Melendez

2024 Steamer Projections: 613 PA; 23 HR; 81 R; 69 RBI; 7 SB; .241/.332/.434; .332 wOBA; 107 wRC+; 1.4 fWAR.

It’s hard to associate the words “optimistic” with Melendez after an underwhelming sophomore campaign that saw his wRC+ go from 98 as a rookie to 92 in 2023.

However, Melendez was primarily hurt by a slow start in the first half of last season. Thanks to some adjustments made in his stance and mechanics, he ended up producing a second half that helped him finish the 2023 season on a high note.

Prior to the All-Star break, he posted a wOBA of .276, a wRC+ of 68, and a BB/K ratio of 0.34. In the second half? His wOBA improved to .356, his wRC+ jumped up to 124, and his BB/K ratio climbed up to 0.40, boosted primarily by a nearly three percent decline in his K rate from the first half.

Additionally, Melendez’s decision value chart from 2023 also correlates with the statistical improvement shown after the All-Star break as well.

Melendez was a beyond-90th-percentile hitter down the stretch when it came to swing decisions producing extra runs at the plate. Considering the Royals ranked 28th in OBP and 25th in OPS last season, that kind of skill set and approach will be much-needed in the Royals lineup in 2024.

Steamer seems to believe that Melendez’s spectacular second half can transition into a solid full 2023 campaign, even with questionable defense. Steamer is projecting 23 HRs, 81 runs scored, and a 1.4 fWAR, despite being dragged down by a Def that is projected to be 10.4 runs below average.

If Melendez can show any semblance of defensive improvement in the outfield like Witt did a season ago at shortstop, then it wouldn’t be surprising to see Melendez be a possible 2.5 to 3 fWAR player for the Royals by the conclusion of 2024.

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Nelson Velazquez

2024 Steamer Projections: 459 PA; 21 HR; 56 R; 63 RBI; 7 SB; .238/.305/.447; .321 wOBA; 100 wRC+; 0.7 fWAR.

Velazquez came over from the Cubs at the Trade Deadline and immediately made his presence felt at the plate in Kansas City.

In 40 games and 147 plate appearances, the 24-year-old former Cub hit 14 home runs, collected 28 RBI, and produced a .365 wOBA and 130 wRC+. His lackluster defense in the outfield (-3.5 Def) kept his fWAR modest at 0.7 for the season. That being said, it feels easy for Royals fans to pencil in Velazquez as the Royals’ starting right fielder or designated hitter on Opening Day next season as long as he is healthy.

In addition to the incredible numbers Velazquez put up in his first 40 games with the Royals, his power and decision value PLV charts also demonstrate that he was a special hitter last season who could be a force in Kansas City in the long term.

Velazquez was regularly around the 90th percentile in runs added per 100 pitches a season ago and his expected extra bases added per BBE rolling chart is just borderline silly (look where the 90th percentile is on that chart). Hence, it’s not a surprise that Steamer is projecting a 20+ HR and 100 wRC+ campaign for Velazquez in 2024.

Granted, Steamer is also projecting the same porous defense (-7.6 Def) and plenty of strikeouts (29% K rate; 0.28 BB/K ratio). That’s a big reason why his fWAR projection remains under one for 2024. Like Melendez though, I think Velazquez could surpass his Steamer projections next season if he sees any progress defensively, and if he can cut down even slightly on the strikeouts.

Honestly, there’s 25-30 HR potential with Velazquez in 2024, especially when Royals fans look at his decision-making at the plate and the power tool he displayed in 2023.

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Freddy Fermin

2024 Steamer Projections: 240 PA; 8 HR; 27 R; 28 RBI; 1 SB; .249/.319/.412; .318 wOBA; 97 wRC+; 1.3 fWAR.

It’s still indeterminate if Salvy will be part of the Royals’ squad on Opening Day in 2024. While the Royals certainly don’t just want to give him away, there seems to be a push from a couple of clubs to acquire him (White Sox and Marlins) and Salvy may be a better fit on a team with higher aspirations than a rebuilding one that is coming off a 106-loss season.

Even during tough seasons in 2021 and 2022, it seemed unfathomable that the Royals would want to trade away Salvy without some kind of backup plan.

However, in 2023, that backup plan emerged in Freddy Fermin, who had a memorable rookie season at the plate and behind the dish.

In 70 games and 235 plate appearances, Fermin hit 9 home runs, collected 32 RBI, and posted a wOBA of .333 and wRC+ of 108. He also showcased excellent defense behind the plate, producing a 7.1 Def, the best mark for Royals catchers in 2023.

The 28-year-old Venezuelan catcher has long been known in the Royals’ Minor League system for his glove and work with pitchers (he was a regular invite to Spring Training despite not being on the 40-man roster). That said, his excellent eye at the plate was something that stuck out in his first full season in the big leagues, and his decision value chart confirms that.

As Fermin saw more pitches at the plate, the better he got in terms of his plate decisions. That shows that Ferminc can continue to be a backup catcher at the very least in 2024 who can still have a positive impact at the plate when Salvy isn’t catching.

And if the Royals do trade Salvy and give Fermin the starting job? Well, the Steamer 600 projections (which project every player’s stats across a full season of at-bats) seem to bode well for Fermin, as they project 14 home runs, 53 RBI, and a 2.4 fWAR.

That mark would make him the third-best Royal in 2024, based on fWAR.

And that is including Salvy on the roster, who would be projected to have a 0.8 fWAR based on Steamer 600 projections.

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