MLB Free Agency officially begins on Monday and it should be an interesting offseason for the Kansas City Royals.

After finishing 56-106, tied for the worst record in Royals history, it is likely that JJ Picollo and the Royals front office will want to make some moves this offseason.

Already, the Royals have trimmed their 40-man roster a bit, as they released players like Nate Eaton, Taylor Hearn, Bubba Thompson, and Tucker Davidson to get to the 40-man mark. It’s also likely that they may non-tender a player or two in the coming weeks leading up to the Winter Meetings in December, especially if they want to be active players in the free agent market and/or Rule 5 Draft (they need to have a spot on the 40-man roster to participate).

Being a small-market club and still at least a year away from their competitive window opening, it’s unlikely that the Royals will make a major splash in free agency. Therefore, Royals fans shouldn’t dream of big names like Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, or Aaron Nola signing with the Royals this winter.

That said, this free-agent market is flush with starting pitching who could be acquired at a reasonable cost for the Royals.

Does that mean the Royals are going to throw three to five-year deals to free-agent starting pitchers? Most likely not, but it is possible that the Royals could splurge a bit on some free-agent pitchers looking for bounce-backs who could come to Kansas City on one to two-year deals.

In this post, I am going to look at five free-agent starting pitchers who could be in the Royals’ price range this offseason and could have an immediate impact in 2024, despite the warts on their profile from 2023. To justify my positions on these free-agent pitcher candidates, I am going to point to PLV metrics to show why these starting pitchers could be more successful in Kansas City in 2024 than they were with their previous clubs last season.

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Michael Wacha

Wacha may be the toughest target for the Royals this offseason, as Spotrac is projecting his market value to be over $18 million per year. That said, I think Wacha could be a target for the Royals, especially if the market plays like it did for him last year.

Wacha had a solid season in San Diego a season ago as he posted a 3.22 ERA in 24 starts and 134.1 IP. In addition to posting a 22.4% K rate a season ago, he also sported a solid pitch mix based on PLV as well, highlighted by a 5.13 overall PLV which was well above the league average.

Wacha’s changeup was one of the best pitches in baseball on a PLV end as it posted a 5.75 mark and 1.71 PLA. That elite pitch more than made up for three sub-par pitches on a PLV basis (the curve, cutter, and sinker) and an average four-seamer, based on PLV (4.80).

While Wacha certainly should receive more attention this offseason than a year ago, there are still concerns that could prevent Wacha from getting more widespread interest.

First off, his 4.30 xERA was higher than his actual ERA, the second-straight season that has occurred. Thus, opposing teams may be expecting him to be a regression candidate, especially if the batted-ball luck changes (.319 xwOBA).

Second, Wacha only pitched 134.1 IP and hasn’t thrown more than 150 innings since 2017. For a number two or three starter that’s fine but it’s hard to justify top-of-the-rotation money for a pitcher who can’t touch 150 innings, even in this day and age where bullpen usage is more prevalent than ever.

Hence, it’s possible that the market for Wacha could be cooler than his team may think, which could open the door for the Royals to perhaps get a better-than-expected one-to-two-year deal toward the end of the offseason.

If Wacha isn’t swooped up before the end of 2023, expect the Royals to emerge as a possible candidate, especially if they are willing to throw a two-to-three-year deal his way, which isn’t unreasonable considering his solid production the past two seasons in Boston (2022) and San Diego (last season).

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Lucas Giolito

It doesn’t feel too long ago that Giolito was one of the top pitchers in the game. However, he posted ERA marks of 4.90 and 4.88 in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Additionally, Giolito ended up pitching for three teams last season as well (White Sox, Angels, and Guardians), a sign that he wasn’t exactly “wanted long-term” by any of the organizations he pitched for.

On one end, there’s a lot to be concerned about with Giolito.

He allowed a barrel rate of 11% a season ago, which was a career-high, and his 41.6% hard-hit rate allowed was also the highest rate allowed since his rookie season in 2016 with the Nationals. When batters got a hold of Giolito’s pitches, they certainly hit it hard.

That said, he still generated a K rate of 25.7% last season and his whiff rate ranked in the 70th percentile last year, according to Savant. Also, he still sported a solid pitch mix last year, based on PLV.

His 5.05 PLV was above the league average and his changeup was one of the better secondary pitches in the league as well, based on its 5.37 PLV. The four-seamer and slider also proved to be average offerings, based on their 4.82 and 5.16, respectively.

The biggest issue pitch-wise for him was the curve which sported a brutal 3.87 PLV.

On the other hand, he only threw the curve 2% of the time, so it’s not like it was a major part of his repertoire a season ago. Hence, could a pitch modification (i.e. eliminating the curve) and perhaps a better infield defense behind him entice Giolito to come to Kansas City on a one or two-year deal?

Considering the Angels and Guardians were both willing to part ways with him in 2023, it’s unlikely that Giolito will have a ton of suitors this winter.

Perhaps the chance to work with a more analytically inclined coaching staff and the opportunity to get revenge on two former teams that employed him last year could sway Giolito to come to Kansas City for at least the 2024 season.

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Kenta Maeda

During the COVID-shortened season of 2020, Maeda was one of the top pitchers in the game as he posted a 2.70 ERA in 11 starts and 66.2 IP.

Unfortunately, things went south for the Japanese pitcher in 2021. He not only saw his ERA inflate to 4.66 in 106.1 IP, but he also ended up undergoing Tommy John surgery which cost him his entire 2022 season and the beginning of 2023.

When Maeda came back to the Twins last year, he basically produced a campaign that fell in between his sensational 2020 and mediocre 2021.

He posted a 4.23 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 104.1 IP and his 3.77 xERA demonstrated that he was probably better than his ERA indicated. On the other hand, he did allow a barrel rate of 8.2% and a hard-hit rate of 42.1%, both career highs.

In terms of PLV, Maeda showed that he still sported one of the better-offspeed arsenals in the game last season.

His splitter (5.13 PLV) and slider (5.38 PLV) were excellent offerings that he threw for a combined 63% of the time a season ago. His sinker also proved to be a decent pitch on a PLV end at 4.76, as did his curve, which sported a 4.85 PLV.

The issue for Maeda? His four-seamer which he threw 27% of the time in 2023. The pitch had a PLV of 4.61, which ranked around the 25th percentile, which isn’t good by any measure.

Could Brian Sweeney and the Royals pitching team help him make a modification on his four-seamer or perhaps have him utilize his sinker more and four-seamer less?

Those kinds of changes could help him get closer to his 2020 self, which in turn could make Maeda an interesting trade chip at the August Trade Deadline in 2024.

Maeda may be one of the more realistic Royals options who could sign a one-year deal, especially at 35 years old. Plus, Maeda’s familiarity with the AL Central could make Kansas City an intriguing destination for him, since he already has a lot of experience pitching against opponents in the division.

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Jack Flaherty

It’s easy to dismiss Flaherty after he posted a 6.75 ERA in 34.2 IP with the Orioles after the Trade Deadline. However, I think that his rough campaign in Baltimore could help the Royals acquire Flaherty at a more reasonable price this offseason (unlike Jordan Montgomery, whose value inflated after a solid stint with the Rangers, especially in the postseason).

The numbers at the surface level aren’t great: 4.99 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in 144.1 IP between the Cardinals and Orioles in 2023.

On the other hand, he pitched 144.1 innings, the most since 2019, and he also produced a 22.8% K rate, which was 3% higher than a season ago.

Additionally, his PLV metrics on his individual pitches still proved to be encouraging despite the lackluster ERA and WHIP numbers.

Flaherty’s situation is akin to Giolito’s. He produced four above-average pitches on a PLV end last year (four-seamer, slider, curve, and cutter). Unfortunately, his changeup and sinker were both atrocious, as evidenced by their 4.14 and 3.92 PLVs, respectively.

Much like Giolito though, Flaherty doesn’t throw either pitch a lot. He only threw his changeup 3% of the time and his sinker 2% of the time, so they could easily be eliminated from his repertoire.

Furthermore, could Sweeney and Co. also help him better utilize his cutter, much like Cole Ragans in 2023?

Flaherty’s 5.40 PLV on the cutter was pretty impressive, and though there likely will be some regression by throwing it more, it could help him be more effective with his overall pitch mix in 2024. That increase in cutter usage (and elimination of the sinker and changeup) could lead to more positive results, especially in terms of strikeouts and walks.

Lastly, the change in scenery in Kansas City could also be a benefit for Flaherty, as he got a lot of flack for being outspoken in St. Louis and struggled to handle the pennant-race pressure in Baltimore. Being on a rebuilding club, and being a voice who could help mentor a young cadre of arms on the Royals pitching staff, could help rejuvenate his career and help him regain that 2019 form when he posted a 2.75 ERA in 196.1 IP.

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Frankie Montas

Montas missed nearly the entire 2023 season due to recovery from Tommy John surgery. He only appeared in one game, which ironically was against the Royals.

However, Montas prior to the 2022 season was seen as a possible Royals trade target. Therefore, it’s entirely possible that the Royals would still have interest in Montas, despite his recent injury history. He also would come at a pretty reasonable price, since the Yankees didn’t even entertain the idea of bringing him back to the Bronx, even though they acquired him from Oakland via trade back in 2022.

Montas is still a big question mark for 2024 considering he only threw 26 pitches in 2023. In addition, it’s hard to know how much of his pitch quality and PLV numbers were affected by his arm issues two seasons ago.

The good thing about Montas’ PLV metrics from 2022 is that none of his pitches were overwhelmingly bad. Even if they were below league average (which his cutter, sinker, and splitter were) they were just barely below that line. Thus, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Montas see a major bounce-back in 2024 with more work this offseason and in Spring Training.

The Royals have seemed to work well with pitchers coming off Tommy John, or at least they know where to refer them to in order to help them not just regain form, but improve as well.

Jonathan Bowlan looked good in his MLB debut in 2023 despite going under the knife for Tommy John in 2021. They also identified a gem in Ragans, even though he had TWO Tommy John procedures with the Rangers.

Could Montas be that next “under-the-radar” piece for the Royals rotation, as his recent injury struggles probably have cooled his value with teams who are more “risk averse”?

The Rays have been known for acquiring pitchers and getting results from them despite their injury histories and it seems like the Royals are willing to go down that route as well, as evidenced by the Ragans acquisition.

It’s hard to imagine Montas becoming the ace again that he once was with the Athletics. That said, it’s certainly plausible to see him be a solid top-of-the-rotation arm for the Royals in 2024 along with Ragans and Brady Singer who could also perhaps net the Royals some prospect capital in August at the Trade Deadline.

And that would be a win-win for both the Royals and Montas, especially if he’s looking for a bigger payday in 2025.

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