The Royals are desperate to find anyone who can make an impact out of the bullpen in 2024. While it’s expected that the Royals will certainly look outside the organization to fill the bullpen next spring, this club will also need some pitchers internally in the system who will need to take a step forward next season.
At the surface level, it doesn’t appear like Collin Snider would be a candidate to “boost” this Royals bullpen next year, especially after a lackluster 2022 and 2023 at the Major League level.
In 62 career appearances and 54.1 IP, Snider sports a 5.93 ERA and K/BB ratio of 1.18. His 5.03 FIP and 4.88 xFIP are more palatable than his career ERA. However, he has also accumulated an fWAR of -0.4. That isn’t encouraging to Royals fans looking for relievers on the Royals’ 40-man roster who can make an impact next year and beyond.
That said, a video surfaced this week showed Snider getting some work in at Tread Athletics (a training facility similar to Driveline), and safe to say, that the early results on his pitch quality have been impressive.
A year ago, Cole Ragans went to Tread and ended up improving not only his pitch velocity but his pitch quality as well, both with Texas and eventually Kansas City. It seems like the Royals are hoping that Tread can have a similar impact on Snider, who’s showcased some interesting stuff but hasn’t quite put it together at the Major League level in his first two seasons.
Going to a “training facility” in the offseason isn’t always a guarantee of success for a pitcher. After all, Dylan Coleman went to Driveline last offseason and was actually worse in 2023 than in 2022 (though he is hoping work with Tread can reverse that trend).
On the other hand, Snider actually showed some progress in 2023 that may have gone overlooked by Royals fans due to Snider’s mediocre surface-level metrics. With some right adjustments in pitch quality and command, it’s possible that Snider could not just be a serviceable reliever in 2024, but could have an important role, depending on the progress of his stuff and command.
Let’s look at the changes Snider made a season ago with his pitch mix and quality, and what Royals fans should be looking for next Spring Training as Snider battles for a spot on the Royals’ Opening Day roster.
Introduction of the Cutter (And Impact on the Sinker)
Here’s a look at Snider’s PLV chart on his pitch arsenal from his rookie season back in 2022.
In his rookie year, Snider was pretty much a two-pitch pitcher and a mediocre one at that.
Both his slider and sinker were below average based on PLV league percentiles, and his sinker only produced a CSW% of 23.4% while his slider produced a CSW% of 27.1%, according to Pitcher List. Therefore, it’s not surprising that many Royals fans, including myself, wondered why they were hanging onto Snider and his questionable reliever profile.
Though he appeared in 22 fewer games and pitched 14 fewer innings, Snider showed some progress in his sophomore season, especially regarding his pitch arsenal.
Let’s take a look at Snider’s PLV chart from this past year.
Now, on a PLV end, Snider saw some regression in his slider and sinker quality. His slider PLV was six points lower than a year ago, and his sinker was 21 points lower, which isn’t good at the surface level.
However, Snider did add two more pitches to his pitch arsenal in 2023: A cutter which he threw 15% of the time, and a four-seam fastball which he threw 11% of the time.
The cutter proved to be his best pitch on a PLV end in 2023, as it posted a 5.35 PLV and 3.14 PLA, both better marks than what his slider and sinker produced in those categories a season ago.
What’s interesting about Snider’s cutter is that it was a pitch that he really didn’t utilize until the end of the season, which can be seen below in his monthly pitch usage chart, via Savant.
It’s interesting to see not only how much his slider percentage dropped from July (when he debuted this season) to September, but also how his cutter and sweeper percentage increased accordingly (more on the sweeper later).
In fact, his cutter was Snider’s second most-thrown pitch in September, a month where he threw 12.2 IP (five more innings than his July and August combined) and posted a 4.26 ERA during that time frame. So any positive progress Snider made from the previous two months could be tied to the more intentional usage of his cutter.
Here’s a look at the metrics from his cutter last season.
When it comes to CSW%, the cutter wasn’t all that impressive, as it only posted a 16.4% mark.
On the other hand, while the cutter didn’t produce a whole lot of whiffs, he found tremendous success locating the pitch in the zone and generating groundballs from opposing hitters with it as well (his 61.5% groundball percentage with the cutter ranked in the 85th percentile last year).
Below is an example of Snider locating his cutter perfectly against Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez to induce a 3-6-3 double play in a September 16th game at Kauffman Stadium.
Furthermore, it also seemed like the addition of his cutter improved the results on his sinker, despite the regression in sinker pitch quality from a season ago.
Here’s a look at the metrics on Snider’s sinker over the past two years and notice the positive gains in CSW% and Str% in 2023.
A nine percent jump in CSW% and a 5.6% increase in Str% are both impressive improvements and signs that Snider’s sinker was being located more effectively a season ago. Additionally, Snider only allowed a hard-contact percentage of 26.8% on the sinker last year, which was 9.3% lower than his rate from his rookie season.
A big reason for that improvement could be credited to the sequencing together of not just his cutter and sinker, but his four-seamer as well.
In the clip compilation below, notice how the initial movement of all three fastball pitches look similar initially but eventually break and drop in different ways, which makes it difficult for opposing hitters to recognize.
Snider may not be projected as a high-strikeout pitcher at the MLB level like James McArthur or even Carlos Hernandez. That being said, the Royals may not need that, as a reliever who can generate weak contact, groundouts, and double plays is certainly just as valuable.
Snider increasing the horizontal movement on the sinker (which seems to be happening at Tread this offseason) and maintaining and honing the sequencing of his sinker with the four-seamer and cutter going forward could make his overall pitch arsenal more effective in 2024.
And that in turn could lead to more soft-hit outs and possibly more whiffs and strikeouts as well, which is what this bullpen needs overall next year.
What About the Sweeper?
An interesting development for Snider toward the end of the year was the increased usage of his sweeper, which caused a decrease in his traditional slider.
Despite the change in breaking-pitch usage, it seemed like the sweeper was not just a solid addition in itself, but also had a positive impact on his slider effectiveness in September as well.
Snider had some rough batted-ball luck on the sweeper in September, as evidenced by the .535 wOBA and two home runs allowed. On the other hand, his sweeper posted the highest whiff% and put away% of his five pitches in the last month of play as well.
Thus, it’s not surprising that his sweeper posted a .302 xwOBA. That percentage was not just 241 points lower than his sweeper wOBA but better than his sinker and cutter xwOBA as well.
What made Snider’s sweeper effective was the crazy horizontal movement on the pitch, even when compared to his slider, which also has been a sharp-moving offering in Snider’s repertoire. In terms of horizontal break, no pitch came closer last year to Snider’s sweeper, as seen in the month-by-month chart below via Savant.
In addition to the data confirming Snider’s horizontal movement advantage with the sweeper, the pitch also is impressive when viewed on tape.
In the clip compilation below, notice how fooled Martin Maldonado of the Astros is by the sharp, late-breaking sweeper. In addition, pay attention to the sweeper’s break difference from a slider thrown on August 30th against the Pirates (despite similar velocity).
It’s amazing how different the two pitches were last year, even though they could be categorized as “similar” pitches.
Without a doubt, Snider’s sweeper could be a game-changer and could be another plus-PLV pitch in 2024, once it starts to get recognized by the PLV system.
Snider doesn’t have to get rid of the slider by any means. It still can be a useful pitch, especially when paired with his traditional sinker.
However, his nasty sweeper will allow him to utilize his slider more sparingly next season, which in turn will make him more difficult to scout by opposing teams and hitters.
Command Will Be Key in 2024
Honestly, in terms of stuff, I think Snider may be one of the Royals’ more high-upside relievers. The sweeper and cutter are both legitimate in terms of pitch quality, and Snider’s five-pitch mix makes him a tough reliever to scout.
The big challenge going forward will be how Snider limits the walks this spring and in 2024. While the stuff certainly is enticing, Snider cannot succeed with a walk rate that was 2.1% higher than his K rate, as it was last season.
A key to minimizing that walk rate will be for Snider to increase the chases next year.
In 2022, Snider’s chase rate was around average at 28%. This year? That chase rate was only 19.9%, a significant dropoff. Nearly all his pitches saw big decreases in chase percentage, as evidenced in the chart below via Savant.
Hopefully, the additions of his cutter and sweeper more heavily in the last month of the year could transition into next year and as a result, lead to a boost in chase percentage. That will be key to getting those extra strikes.
To his credit, Snider sported a different repertoire in September than he did in July and August. Thus, one has to wonder if Brian Sweeney will want Snider to focus on that arsenal and pitch usage from the last month of 2023 to make him more effective right out of the gate in 2024.
Regardless, getting those strikes consistently will be key for Snider to limit free passes on the basepaths. After all, the Royals bullpen ranked 29th in BB/9 a year ago. They need relievers who are going to positively impact that number next year.
If Snider’s command and control with his pitch mix doesn’t improve, then he won’t last very long in the bullpen next year, regardless of the increase in pitch arsenal and quality.
Photo Credit: Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
[…] Kevin O’Brien at Royals Reporter thinks Collin Snider can make an impact next year. […]
[…] Kevin O’Brien at Royals Reporter thinks Collin Snider can make an impact next year. […]
[…] Athletics to be moved off the 40-man roster this offseason (the others being Dylan Coleman and Collin Snider). Like Coleman and Snider, Heasley has flashed some potential over his career and there was some […]