MLB Trade Rumors published their annual “projected arbitration salaries” this week, a much-anticipated projection each year for hardcore baseball fans.

The Royals currently have eight players who will be arbitration-eligible this offseason. According to MLB Trade Rumors, that is down from the 11 they had last October.

Below is the list of Royals players who JJ Picollo and the Royals front office will have to decide on, and their projected salaries.

Last year, the Royals had much tougher (and more expensive) decisions to make as Adalberto Mondesi, Luke Weaver, Amir Garrett, Nicky Lopez, Scott Barlow, and Brad Keller were all arbitration-eligible and had projected salary amounts individually of $2.5 million or above.

This year, the only player who could command a salary amount over that $2.5 million mark is Brady Singer.

At least the Royals front office will have more financial flexibility to play with this offseason compared to a year ago.

That said, Picollo and the Royals front office will have to make some tough decisions to make with this group of players. In all likelihood, there will probably be at least one from this group non-tendered, and it could be more, depending on what other teams do with their own arbitration-eligible players this offseason.

In this post, let’s categorize these eight players into three distinct tiers:

1.) Most likely coming back; 2.) Most likely non-tendered; 3.) Still To Be Determined.

Let’s break down this group and see who belongs in what tier and why.

---

Most Likely Coming Back

Taylor, Singer, Bubic, and Hernandez

Right now, I think there are four players for sure that will be tendered contracts from this group. And all four are pitchers, ironically.

Granted, Royals fans are probably saying “Their pitching was horrible! Why would Picollo bring them back?”

Plain and simple: the Royals need depth in 2024, even if the ones they do have struggled last season.

Singer and Hernandez are prime examples of the Royals’ pitching dilemma.

Singer entered 2023 as the Royals’ most promising starting pitcher, but he struggled immensely throughout the season. After posting a 3.23 ERA and 2.9 fWAR in 153.1 innings pitched in 2022, he saw his ERA and fWAR regress to 5.52 and 1.9, respectively in 159.2 IP. That wasn’t what the Royals or Royals fans wanted to see from a guy who looked like a “possible ace” just a season ago.

Last winter, Singer went through a difficult arbitration case, and after a subpar 2023, one has to wonder if the Royals are looking to shop Singer this offseason. That said, his value is probably not very high after such a mediocre year, and it may be better for the Royals to simply go another year with Singer and see if they could perhaps increase his value in 2024 and perhaps flip him at the deadline.

The same is true for Hernandez, who looked like a closer candidate in June and July and then saw a massive decline after Barlow was traded to San Diego.

I don’t think Hernandez was as bad as his last couple of months indicated, but I’m not sure he can be a dependable high-leverage reliever either. Thus, he could be a trade candidate, but he needs to recoup some value, so I could see the Royals tendering him a deal to make that happen (and it wouldn’t cost much either at $1.3 million if it hits that amount).

Taylor and Bubic are more complicated cases as they were injured last year and missed a majority of the season. That said, I think they would be easily swooped up by other teams if non-tendered, so it’s likely the Royals play it safe and simply tender contracts to them (and maybe get slight discounts on those projected amounts due to their health statuses).

Taylor’s ERA looks bad at 8.15, but his other metrics paint a more optimistic picture.

In 17 games, he posted a 31.3% K rate and K-BB% of 20.5%, both stellar marks. It’s not a surprise that his xFIP was 3.34, and it’s possible that his numbers would’ve looked a lot better had he pitched a full season.

With Austin Cox likely out for a good majority of 2023 and Tucker Davidson’s future unclear (he has no Minor League options remaining), the Royals need left-handed help, and Taylor fits the bill.

As for Bubic, he only made three starts before going under the knife for Tommy John but he already looked like a much-changed pitcher from his previous three seasons, especially with the addition of his slider, which was discouraged by previous pitching coach Cal Eldred.

Even though Bubic’s timetable (and role) is unclear for 2024, he seems like a guy Brian Sweeney and the Royals pitching coach team like, so I think they give him another shot to see what he can do in a full healthy season (and I think he gets a deal under that $2.4 million projection too).

---

Most Likely Non-Tendered

Staumont and Hearn

Staumont went under the knife for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome in July and it’s unclear if Staumont will be able to pitch again professionally. The surgery has been a career-ender for many MLB pitchers, including former No. 1 overall draft pick and World Series champion Luke Hochevar.

Therefore, it seems like it would be easy for the Royals to non-tender him and perhaps bring him back on a Minor League deal as he works his way back (should Staumont not opt for retirement). This could be a two-year process (at the soonest) so it’s unlikely that any team would pick him up, especially after posting a 6.45 ERA in 2022 and a 5.40 ERA in 2023.

Hearn is a more complicated case since he is healthy and was recently acquired for Nicky Lopez in a deal that was panned by experts and Royals fans. Even though he didn’t have a tremendous sample in Kansas City, it was bad enough to a point where Hearn’s tenure with the Royals may be done already.

On one hand, Hearn showed some potential with his pitches last year in his transition to the bullpen, with his slider rating out as a positive pitch on a PLV end, as seen in the PLV chart below.

On the other hand, his four-seamer was NOT a good pitch on a PLV end (4.57) and his 8.22 ERA and 20% HR/FB rate with the Royals were both subpar marks, even in only 7.2 IP.

Much like Taylor, Hearn’s xFIP with the Royals was better than his ERA (4.11). However, on a pitch-quality end, Taylor’s PLV metrics are far better than Hearn’s, which can be seen in Taylor’s PLV chart below.

I can see the Royals keeping Hearn OR Taylor but not both.

And if that’s the case, the Royals would probably be better off keeping Taylor and letting Hearn walk this offseason.

---

Still To Be Determined

Clarke and Olivares

Picollo mentioned in his end-of-season press conference that a priority will be improving their bullpen this offseason. I believe that Clarke will be either a sign that they’re serious about that statement or if it is just lip service.

On one end, Clarke provided a veteran presence to what was a young Royals bullpen down the stretch. If the Royals though are intent on improving their bullpen through free agency or trade, a much-better veteran could be acquired, which would make his status in the Royals bullpen next season expendable.

It’s hard to be too optimistic about a 30-year-old reliever who posted a 5.95 ERA and -0.2 fWAR in 59 IP, according to Fangraphs.

Conversely, he would only cost $2.2 million in arbitration, which still would be far less than what a veteran reliever would command on the free agent market. In addition, he still posted a solid overall PLV, highlighted by a slider that proved to be a borderline elite pitch last year in terms of PLV.

Could Clarke iron out his four-seamer and changeup quality and be at least a solid middle-innings reliever who can get the Royals out of jams on occasion? Perhaps, but that shows that the Royals are approaching bullpen construction with the goal of just “eating innings” rather than producing “quality innings”.

That was excusable for 2023 during a year that clearly had low expectations. I’m not sure Picollo can do that two years in a row.

As for Olivares, he may be the biggest “wild card” of the Royals’ arbitration-eligible bunch.

After he wasn’t traded by the August Deadline, I thought Olivares was for sure a non-tender candidate this offseason. He was practically unplayable in the outfield due to his poor defense, and when he was optioned to Omaha on August 13th, he was hitting .246 with a .700 OPS.

However, things changed quickly when he got called back up from the Storm Chasers on September 3rd.

In September/October, Olivares hit .329 with six home runs, 16 RBI, and an 181 wRC+ in 77 plate appearances. While some Royals fans may think that Olivares just benefited from a hot month, his overall hitting metrics after the All-Star Break were encouraging.

After the All-Star Break, the 27-year-old hit .299 with a .883 OPS. That also included an increase in his BB/K ratio (0.31 in the first half to 0.41 in the second half) as well as wRC+ (86 in the first half to 138 wRC+ in the second half).

In addition, his PLV decision value rolling chart showcased that Olivares was pretty effective in his decision-making at the plate, sans for a rough rough rough stretch (which happened in June).

Olivares proved that he was a legitimate hitter by the end of 2023 whose bat could suffice just fine at DH or a corner outfield spot on an occasional day.

I think the Royals will try to aggressively shop Olivares still whether it’s in the offseason or during the 2024 year. That being said, I also am not 100% sure that the Royal will want to keep Olivares either, especially considering his defensive deficiencies.

Olivares’ arbitration situation reminds me of Maikel Franco’s after the 2020 season. I thought Franco deserved to be tendered a deal after a solid season, but the Royals felt his combination of age, glove, and bat wasn’t worth keeping around.

The decision ended up being a sound one by the Royals (even if it was Dayton Moore who made the move).

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Olivares back especially since his $1.8 million mark is far less than Franco’s projected salary projection at the time (which ranged from $4-8 million, according to Trade rumors). That said, with a dearth of cheaper and more long-term outfield options available, and the need for Salvy to see more time at DH in 2024, the Royals may simply move on from Olivares this winter, especially since they were unable to get much interest for him at the Deadline.

It’s unlikely that Olivares’ trade value will improve with another year of service time, unfortunately.

Photo Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports