On Friday night, Bobby Witt, Jr. made Royals history, as he hit his 30th home run of the season, a 423-foot bomb off of the Yankees’ Kenyan Middleton.

The home run made Witt the first 30 HR-30 SB player in Royals franchise history (and consequently the first 30 HR-40 SB player and possibly 30 HR-50 SB player, should he be able to get another stolen base against the Yankees this weekend).

That kind of performance is remarkable, especially considering the players (George Brett, Bo Jackson, Frank White, etc.) who have donned the Royals blue and white since 1969. It’s also a promising sign of Witt’s development since his rookie season, which was solid, but not good enough to finish within the Top-3 in the American League Rookie of the Year voting.

Early on in the season, when Witt was still adjusting, many Royals fans were already remarking that the talented shortstop was another Royals draft pick “bust.” That said, I noticed some promising trends in his PLV rolling charts and figured he’d be due for a turnaround after a slow start in April and May.

Safe to say, that turnaround has indeed happened, and Royals fans couldn’t be happier, especially during this rough “evaluation” season.

Since June, Witt has been hitting .302 while posting a .870 OPS. The former No. 2 overall pick has particularly been scorching after the All-Star break. He is sporting a triple slash of .299/.340/.561 and an OPS of .901 in 294 plate appearances. In addition, he has collected 16 home runs, 49 RBI, and 22 stolen bases as well in the second half.

Even though the Royals are in last place in the AL Central, it’s not out of the question to think that Witt could receive a fair share of MVP votes, especially since he’s been one of the best statistical hitters in baseball this year (with the exception of Ronald Acuna, Jr. over course).

During a down Royals season, Witt has been a bright spot that has motivated loyal Royals fans to come to the ballpark.

While there are some young players who are emerging this year, and could be long-term fixtures in Kansas City, there is no doubt that Witt is indeed the star and face of the franchise, even with Salvador Perez being the “captain” of this year’s squad.

This begs Royals fans to ask this important question:

What’s next for Bobby after the 2023 regular season concludes?

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Takeaways From Witt’s PLV Charts

Back in June, I took a look at Witt’s PLV charts and noticed some positive trends emerging with his decisions at the plate as well as his contact and power. It made me hopeful that a surge was coming, and Royals fans ended up seeing precisely that in July and after the All-Star Break.

So let’s take a look at a few of Witt’s PLV charts and see how they compare to what he did in 2022.

First off, let’s take a look at Witt’s strike zone judgment since his plate discipline was an area of Witt’s hitting that many Royals fans and other baseball minds had concerns about after his rookie campaign. After all, he posted a BB/K ratio of 0.22 last season, highlighted by a 21.4% K rate, according to Fangraphs.

This year, the BB/K ratio is slightly higher at 0.33. The walk rate is still kind of low at 5.7% (though it’s a one percent improvement from a year ago). That said, his K rate is down to 17.5% which is a 3.9% improvement from 2022.

Below is a PLV rolling chart comparison of how his strike zone judgment fared last year and this season, which can also explain his slight improvement in his walk and strikeout rates and ratios (scroll right for 2022; left for 2023).

As Royals fans can see in the chart comparison, when Witt was around league average last year, that was cause for celebration. His season average ball/strike correctness hovered around the 25th percentile according to his PLV rolling chart.

This season though, he’s seen his ball/strike correctness trend around the 90th percentile and between the 75th and 90th percentile on a frequent basis. As a result, his ball/strike correctness season average is slightly over the 50th percentile, which is the league average.

That positive growth in strike zone discipline is a big reason why Witt is not just striking out less, but doing more damage at the plate because he’s not chasing as much and putting himself in as many “pitcher-friendly” counts.

Speaking of decisions at the plate, let’s look at how decision value, which measures runs based on swing/take decisions, rolling chart looks this season, and how it compares to his rookie campaign a year ago.

Last year, Witt showed some positive progress after a slow start, but nosedived around the 1250-pitch mark and never really could recover. His season average of runs added per 100 pitches fell around the 10th percentile in 2022.

In 2023, his season average of runs added per 100 pitches is around the 50th percentile and the 1.20 average mark is nearly double his average mark from a year ago as well. Since the 2000-pitch mark, Witt has regularly been above the league average in runs added per 100 pitches and has touched the 90th percentile regularly as well, which is what one wants to see from a high-profile hitter.

Lastly, let’s take a look at his overall hitting performance rolling charts from the past two seasons, which give Royals fans a look at Witt’s decisions at the plate and how they connect with his natural skills (like contact and power).

It’s interesting to see Witt trend differently in his rookie and sophomore seasons.

In 2022, Witt seemed to be on the right track through the 1500-pitch mark but he seemed to plateau at that point and as a result, hovered around league average in runs added per 100 pitches for the remainder of the season. Granted, Witt was a rookie (and probably hit that rookie wall) and also dealt with a minor hamstring injury, so those probably explained the slide around the 1600 pitches and beyond.

This year though, the trend in runs added per 100 pitches has been the opposite. He was around league average up to the 1500-pitch mark and then after he exploded onto the scene and became a hitter who was producing runs added per 100 pitches output well above the 90th percentile for a considerable amount of time.

Witt has not only adjusted to opposing pitchers over the course of the year, but he has actually gotten better with the more pitches he’s seen, based on the rolling chart data.

That’s a good sign that Witt is slowly becoming elite with his decision-making at the plate, which pairs well with his natural contact ability, power, and speed.

Thus, what we’re seeing from Witt this year is an encouraging sign that his performance at the plate is not a fluke, but is only getting better. His rolling xwOBA over the past two years also seems to confirm that.

These positive developments hitting-wise mean the Royals have a bonafide superstar on their hands who has a solid long-term outlook not just on the basepaths and with the glove (which has also seen incredible development), but with the bat as well.

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How Do the Royals Handle Witt’s Contract Going Forward?

There’s no doubt that John Sherman, JJ Picollo, and the Royals front office want to keep Witt around long-term.

Not only has he been their top player on a fWAR end (5.6 as of Saturday), but he seems to have the personality and intangibles to handle the attention and pressures that are placed upon a star player, especially in Kansas City.

Fans love Witt. His teammates love him. His coaches love him. The front office loves him. Sherman and the ownership group love him. It’s hard for any person associated with the game to have anything bad to say about Witt.

That said, there’s no question that while Witt loves playing with the Royals right now, he and his dad (who is his agent) know his value and will do whatever they can to ensure that he gets a deal that reflects that and then some.

I do understand that there are some Royals fans and content creators who are upset that the Royals didn’t get a more “team-friendly” deal done last offseason, just before he surged at the plate and in the field this year.

Honestly though, a deal like that was probably not going to happen, even when his value was at its lowest.

Witt was the No. 2 pick in 2019, going only behind Adley Rutschman, who’s been incredible in his own right with Baltimore. He was one of the top prospects in the game in 2021 and prior to 2022, not an easy feat considering he was in the same prospect “class” as Rutschman, Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez, and Atlanta’s Michael Harris II.

A “Wander Franco” or “K’eBryan Harris” style deal was never going to happen simply because of the massive luster of Witt’s name and prospect status.

Then again, that doesn’t matter really. Sherman and Picollo need to at least offer whatever it takes to extend Witt.

The reality is that the Royals will not attract “big-name” free agents when they hit the market. They didn’t during their competitive era from 2013-2017, and it’s unlikely that they will be able to now or even during their next competitive era, whenever that should be (hopefully in a couple of seasons).

The Royals’ sole hope of getting stars in Kansas City requires them to draft or sign them (through the international signing process), develop them, and give them the bag when it’s determined that they are legitimate and can be building blocks for this team on a long-term basis.

Sometimes it doesn’t work. They tried to give big money to Eric Hosmer for example, and he turned them down for San Diego (which ended up being a blessing in disguise considering his struggles with the Padres). They also gave big money to Alex Gordon, but he ended up declining sharply after he earned his massive payday.

That said, it worked with Salvy, who’s been their highest-paid player for the last couple of seasons after signing a big deal prior to 2021 and has been productive at the plate and a primary leader in the clubhouse for this young squad.

Right now, Witt is a building block who seems to like Kansas City and the Royals organization more than Hosmer and is young enough to where he won’t see the slide that we saw from Gordo.

Can the Royals financially make that commitment now?

Right now, it appears so on a payroll end.

Below is a look at the guaranteed deals they have on their payroll until 2027.

Salvy’s deal remains on the books until at least 2025. However, Greinke and Duffy come off the books this offseason, and Brentz’s is pretty minuscule in the grand scheme of things. Jordan Lyles still has one more year left, but at $8.5 million, it’s not a huge strain or roadblock to the Royals when it comes to signing a major deal.

Let’s look at those arbitration-eligible and in the pre-arbitration status of their contracts as well.

In terms of arbitration-eligible players, there are a lot of non-tender candidates from that group, which should free up more payroll. Brad Keller is a free agent and won’t be back. Taylor Clarke, Taylor Hearn, and Josh Taylor may be gone after underwhelming seasons. Josh Staumont has a major injury and may call it a career. And while Brady Singer and Kris Bubic have shown flashes of potential, it’s likely that they could be trade candidates this offseason.

When it comes to those Royals who haven’t reached arbitration yet, Edward Olivares will be arb-eligible this offseason and will be a peculiar case considering his defensive limitations. Maikel Garcia could be an extension candidate but he needs to prove that he can hit for more power next year. And while MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, and Vinnie Pasquantino could be long-term contract candidates, they will need another year to prove that they can be building blocks after disappointing seasons.

Therefore, the Royals do not need to be saving money for another “possible star” on the roster as of now. The only one who deserves a big long-term deal is Witt and Witt alone.

This means that Picollo and Sherman should throw whatever years and dollars it takes this winter to keep him in Kansas City until at least his age-30 season.

What does that contract look like? I’m not sure, though I will share some thoughts this offseason, and I know plenty of other Royals content creators have their thoughts too.

But Bobby Baseball is legit.

And the path to turning the Royals around into a winner again begins with him.

Pay the man his money.

Photo Credit: Ed Zurga/Getty Images