The Royals lost two of three at the K to Tampa Bay, which isn’t the most remarkable start for a Royals team competing with the Oakland Athletics for the worst record in baseball in 2023.
However, Kansas City ended their series against the Rays on a positive note on Sunday afternoon, highlighted by an 8-4 win that took less than two hours to complete (and this was with a one-hour rain delay).
Even though the Royals are 1-2 to begin the second half of the 2023 season, the Royals got a trio of solid pitching performances from their young arms, including Brady Singer today, Alec Marsh, and Cole Ragans on Saturday.
While their pitching performances weren’t perfect by any means (after all, they did lose two of the games in the series), they all took steps in the right direction in their first starts of the second half. This could give Royals fans hope that the starting rotation, which has been a sore spot this season despite the change in the coaching staff, could be due for some better days ahead, not just in 2023, but perhaps in 2024 as well.
Let’s break down the starts of Marsh, Ragans, and Singer from over the weekend, what stood out, and what to pay attention to from the trio in their next couple of starts.
Marsh: Dynamic Performance; Pitch Quality Still Needs Refinement
I could attend the first game of the Royals’ doubleheader on Saturday, and Marsh was impressive from the stands.
He not only attacked Rays hitters right from the get-go but he didn’t get rattled in tough spots, especially after giving up solo blasts to Jose Siri and Francisco Mejia in the 3rd and 5th innings, respectively. Marsh’s composure in his outing was refreshing from a fan’s perspective, especially since Royals fans haven’t seen that often from starting pitchers this season.
In addition to him impressing the Royals faithful on Saturday afternoon, Marsh also put up a statistical performance that was not just the best of the season from a Royals pitcher, but in quite some time, especially from a rookie pitcher.
Marsh is coming off a brutal 2022 campaign in Northwest Arkansas where he was particularly hurt by the long ball. While home runs were still an issue on Saturday, both home runs he allowed were solo blasts, and he didn’t amplify those long ball issues with unnecessary walks, which has haunted him in the past, especially in Double-A ball.
The strikeout numbers from Marsh were impressive on Saturday, and at the very least, he’s showing that he has the propensity to strike out Major League batters in bunches when his stuff is on. Even though his ERA is still 5.40 for the season, his 31.8% K rate ranks in the upper 96th percentile of the league, and his swinging strike rate of 14% ranks in the 81st percentile of the league, according to Pitcher List.
That said, while he was making the Rays swing and miss on Saturday, his overall CSW rate was only 27.2%, which is surprising for a guy with 11 strikeouts.
A big reason for such a slightly below-average CSW in this latest performance was that he only generated nine called strikes overall. While that worked against a free-swinging team like the Rays (who were particularly aggressive on Saturday afternoon), it could prove to be troublesome against more patient teams going forward.
In addition, it also seemed like Rays didn’t take enough advantage of the pitches that Marsh threw in the middle-middle area, which can be seen in his pitch type chart and pitch description chart from Saturday’s game, displayed in the image comparison below.
(Scroll right for pitch type; scroll left for pitch result.)
Notice the number of middle-middle pitches from Marsh in both charts, which is not necessarily a long-term recipe for success. Royals fans can see that the Rays didn’t do damage on those pitches, as they fouled off a lot of them, let a lot of them go by, or simply swung through those pitches that are honestly “meatball” offerings.
Granted, Marsh deserves some credit for his sequencing, which made up for his inconsistent command in the strike zone.
Marsh mixed up his first pitches frequently, and that not only cause the Rays to guess incorrectly but chase often as well. For the game, Marsh induced an O-Swing% of 41.8% on Saturday, which included an 87.5% O-Swing rate on his slider, which is kind of insane.
A concern that did stick out from the outing though was his PLV numbers on his pitches, which aligned closely with his overall PLV of 4.70 for the season. That PLV ranks in the bottom 2nd percentile, according to Pitcher List rankings.
The slider was a solid pitch in terms of PLV (5.07) and Q-BP% (16.7%). On the other hand, the four-seamer and curveball both posted negative Q-BP% marks, and his changeup sported the worst PLV of his pitch repertoire from Saturday with a 4.62 mark.
There’s no question that Marsh can pump up the velocity on his pitches (he averaged 94.3 MPH on his four-seamer), but the pitch quality, as measured by PLV was a bit more suspect (4.84).
I don’t want to downplay Marsh’s performance by any means. 11 strikeouts are certainly nothing to shrug off and Marsh earned every one of those K’s against a very good Tampa Bay squad.
That said, his questionable command and PLV from Saturday weren’t exposed by the Rays.
It could be a different story in Marsh’s future outings, especially as more teams get a better scouting report on him with each and every MLB outing.
Ragans: Not As Many K’s, But Still Impressive
If Royals fans are looking simply at box score lines, then no doubt, Marsh’s outing was more impressive than Ragans Royals debut on Saturday night.
On the flip side, while the strikeouts certainly didn’t match Marsh’s, Ragans’ overall performance, including his command and pitch quality, should give Royals fans hope that the former Rangers pitching prospect could find more success in the long term, especially if he stays in the rotation.
Unlike Marsh’s pitch chart, which contained a lot of pitches being thrown in middle-middle locations, Ragans’ pitch chart had a clear plan, with his four-seamers and changeups finding the areas of the zone that typically leads to success.
The difference for Ragans in the Saturday evening game was that the Rays simply didn’t chase as much against him as they did against Marsh earlier in the day, which can be seen in the pitch chart comparisons below.
For the most part, Ragans hit the upper part of the zone with his four-seamer and down at the bottom of the zone with his changeup, which is what one would want from a pitcher who sports a four-seamer that averaged 97.5 MPH and a changeup that averaged 87.1 MPH on Saturday.
The changeup had some success in O-Swing%, as it averaged a 50% mark against the Rays. However, the four-seamer was less successful, with a 33.3% O-Swing%.
It was surprising to see the Rays more patient against Ragans, especially since his four-seamer was faster than Marsh’s. Then again, it is plausible that already playing a game earlier helped them be a little more settled at the plate in the evening. It makes one wonder what would’ve happened had Marsh and Ragans traded places in the rotation.
When Ragans’ stuff, especially his four-seamer, and changeup, are working properly, he can produce swings and misses on both pitches with ease, which can be seen in his strikeouts of Siri and Isaac Paredes, respectively.
Another promising sign from Ragans’ first outing with the Royals is that the CSW% and PLV numbers were solid.
Ragans produced an overall CSW rate of 28.4%, highlighted by a 40% CSW on his changeup. Furthermore, he produced an overall PLV of 5.18, and here’s how his pitch PLV numbers broke down from Saturday.
Nearly every pitch on a PLV end from Ragans was better than Marsh’s on Saturday. That’s not to downplay Marsh’s performance but to highlight how sneaky good Ragans’ performance was, even if he didn’t have the big strikeout numbers of Marsh.
Nick Pollack of Pitcher List also mentioned how good Ragans was against Tampa, and how he embodied a “Blake Snell Blueprint” in his Royals debut.
As expected, Ragans was sent back down to Omaha, which is required for anyone who is named the 27th man for a doubleheader. That said, since he wasn’t officially optioned, Ragans can be called up whenever and doesn’t have to wait for the customary 15 days (which is required when a player is optioned), as Anne Rogers reported after the game.
I imagine Ragans will be back up in Kansas City soon, especially considering the Royals’ need in the rotation.
How his pitch quality and velocity fare in his next couple of starts could determine if Ragans could solidify his spot in the Royals rotation in 2024.
Singer: Classic “Good” Singer Emerges on Sunday
The Royals won 8-4 today, and while the bats were the main story (and rightfully so), Singer’s performance shouldn’t be overlooked, as he threw seven shutout innings before unraveling a bit in the 8th (highlighted by two home runs allowed; though he did finish the inning despite those struggles).
For the game, Singer went 8.0 IP and allowed four runs on seven hits and zero walks while striking out four on 92 pitches. Singer gave up plenty of hard contact in his outing, as 11 Rays batted balls against him were classified as “hard-hit” by Savant. That said, he induced a lot of ground balls and he worked quickly and efficiently on the mound today (his pace was a big reason why the game was under two hours).
The traits that he showed today are what made him such an intriguing pitcher last season.
In terms of command, Singer’s outing was closer to Marsh’s than Ragans’, based on Singer’s respective pitch type and description charts.
The sinker sat more in the middle of the zone than one would want, especially considering that the pitch averaged 92.7 MPH on Sunday (which was 0.4 MPH up from his season average though). Then again, considering Singer’s struggles with command this year, the fact that he was throwing his primary pitch for strikes was positive.
Furthermore, his pace and staying on the attack seemed to benefit him as it kept Rays hitters off balance, which can be seen in the overall strike data from his pitch arsenal today, via Savant.
In addition to an overall CSW% of 34%, his sinker generated a 30% CSW, his slider generated a 35% CSW, and his changeup produced a 43% CSW. That’s a pitch mix that can be successful in the long term, even if it may not generate a ton of strikeouts in the process.
Singer may not generate the strikeouts and whiffs necessary to be “ace-like” this year as he was a season ago. It’s going to be hard for him to recapture that status unless the sinker velocity can dramatically increase, which seems unlikely at this point in the season.
However, today, the former 2018 first-round pick showed, against a playoff team, that he can throw strikes, keep hitters off-balance, and work through games efficiently when his command and control are on point.
That certainly merits a spot in the Royals rotation for the remainder of 2023 and even 2024, even if it may not be at the top of the rotation, as Royals fans envisioned at the conclusion of 2022.
Photo Credit: Ed Zurga/GettyImages
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